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Bundesliga

Bundesliga Betting Tips

Free daily Bundesliga tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

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Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Germany, Bundesliga
Sat 10 Oct
13:30		Bayer Leverkusen or Draw74.0%@ 1.40
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Germany, Bundesliga
Fri 9 Oct
18:30		Borussia Dortmund Win74.0%@ 1.33
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Germany, Bundesliga
Sat 10 Oct
16:30		Over 2.572.8%@ 1.30
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Germany, Bundesliga
Sat 10 Oct
13:30		SV Elversberg or Draw70.7%@ 1.67

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Germany, Bundesliga
Sun 11 Oct
15:30		Over 2.567.5%@ 1.62+9.4%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.8%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
18:30		Market71%@1.3318%@5.2511%@8.5085%@1.1153%@1.8058%@1.62
DC 1X
89%
@ 1.08
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
Home Win
71%
@ 1.33
Over 2.5
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Under 3.5
53%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
32%
@ 3.00
DC X2
29%
@ 3.00
Draw
18%
@ 5.25
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
Away Win
11%
@ 8.50
1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market67%@1.4219%@5.0014%@7.0084%@1.1253%@1.8059%@1.57
DC 1X
86%
@ 1.11
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
Over 2.5
68%
@ 1.40
Home Win
67%
@ 1.42
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
53%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
DC X2
33%
@ 2.75
Under 2.5
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Away Win
14%
@ 7.00
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market7%@13.0012%@8.0081%@1.1893%@1.0432%@3.0065%@1.44
DC X2
93%
@ 1.05
Over 1.5
93%
@ 1.04
Over 2.5
83%
@ 1.14
Away Win
81%
@ 1.18
Over 3.5
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Under 3.5
32%
@ 3.00
DC 1X
19%
@ 4.50
Under 2.5
17%
@ 5.50
Draw
12%
@ 8.00
Home Win
7%
@ 13.00
Under 1.5
7%
@ 13.00
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market32%@3.0025%@3.8043%@2.2084%@1.1255%@1.7366%@1.40
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
DC X2
68%
@ 1.40
Over 2.5
66%
@ 1.44
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
DC 1X
57%
@ 1.67
Under 3.5
55%
@ 1.73
Over 3.5
45%
@ 2.10
Away Win
43%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
34%
@ 2.75
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market42%@2.2526%@3.7032%@3.0081%@1.1759%@1.6265%@1.44
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC 1X
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
62%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
59%
@ 1.62
DC X2
58%
@ 1.67
Home Win
42%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
41%
@ 2.30
Under 2.5
38%
@ 2.50
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Away Win
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
26%
@ 3.70
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market19%@5.0020%@4.7561%@1.5785%@1.1150%@1.9165%@1.44
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
DC X2
81%
@ 1.18
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Away Win
61%
@ 1.57
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
DC 1X
39%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
20%
@ 4.75
Home Win
19%
@ 5.00
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
16:30		Market62%@1.5520%@4.7518%@5.2588%@1.0845%@2.1069%@1.36
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 2.5
73%
@ 1.30
BTTS Yes
69%
@ 1.36
Home Win
62%
@ 1.55
Over 3.5
55%
@ 1.73
Under 3.5
45%
@ 2.10
DC X2
38%
@ 2.50
BTTS No
31%
@ 3.00
Under 2.5
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
20%
@ 4.75
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
13:30		Market48%@2.0025%@3.8027%@3.5083%@1.1457%@1.6765%@1.44
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
DC 1X
73%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.50
Under 3.5
57%
@ 1.67
DC X2
52%
@ 1.80
Home Win
48%
@ 2.00
Over 3.5
43%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.62
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Away Win
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 ▼
Germany, Bundesliga
15:30		Market57%@1.6724%@4.0019%@5.0079%@1.2062%@1.5358%@1.62
DC 1X
81%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
Under 3.5
62%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Home Win
57%
@ 1.67
DC X2
43%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
Over 3.5
38%
@ 2.50
Draw
24%
@ 4.00
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Away Win
19%
@ 5.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Bundesliga

The Bundesliga is Germany’s top flight and the highest-scoring major league in European football. With an average of 3.1 goals per game, the Bundesliga consistently produces more goals than the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or Ligue 1. The attacking philosophy ingrained in German football makes every matchday a feast for goals markets.

For bettors, the Bundesliga is arguably the most straightforward major league for goals-based betting. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in over 65% of Bundesliga matches over the past five seasons, the highest strike rate of any major European competition. Our AI models are heavily calibrated around this statistical reality.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

3.28
goals per match on average
65.1%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
61.3%
of matches see both teams score
44.8%
home wins

Based on 344 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Bundesliga

⚽
Highest goals per game in Europe
The Bundesliga averages 3.1 goals per game, significantly above the European average of 2.6. Over 2.5 goals has hit in over 65% of matches over the past five seasons, making it the single most reliable bet type in German football.
🏠
Friday fixtures show higher home rates
Bundesliga matches on Friday evenings show a measurably higher home win rate than Saturday and Sunday fixtures. This scheduling pattern is well documented, and bookmakers are aware of it too.
🎯
Bayern’s historic dominance
Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga in 11 of 12 consecutive seasons. They dominate mid-table and lower sides, which bookmakers reflect in very short 1X2 prices.
🏆
Second-half scoring surge
The Bundesliga has a higher proportion of goals scored in the second half than any other major European league. Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals bets benefit from the typical Bundesliga pattern of matches opening up after halftime.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Bundesliga Betting Record

86.7% of our published tips won 15 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 19 Sep 2026✅ Win
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Pick: Werder Bremen Asian Handicap +0.0 @ 1.81
💡 Market consensus puts this at 53.3% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.81 imply about 55% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 05 Sep 2026✅ Win
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
Pick: SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.30
💡 Model gives 86.1% probability for this selection. At odds 1.30 this represents +12.3% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 29 Aug 2026✅ Win
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Pick: SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.33
💡 Model gives 91.2% probability for this selection. At odds 1.33 this represents +21.7% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Bundesliga match analyses →

Bundesliga Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund440092+712
WWWW
2Bayern München Bayern München4310142+1210
WWDW
3SC Freiburg SC Freiburg4310123+910
DWWW
4FC Augsburg FC Augsburg4211116+57
LDWW
5Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen4211105+57
WDWL
6FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 054211106+47
WLWD
7SV Elversberg SV Elversberg421187+17
DLWW
8Werder Bremen Werder Bremen421188+07
WDWL
9RB Leipzig RB Leipzig420295+46
LWLW
10Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt4121910-15
DWLD
11FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04412134-15
DWDL
12SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07411235-24
WLLD
131. FC Köln 1. FC Köln411269-34
LDLW
141899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim4103710-33
LWLL
15VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart410369-33
LLWL
16Hamburger SV Hamburger SV4103213-113
WLLL
17Union Berlin Union Berlin4013417-131
LLLD
18Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach4004616-100
LLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
S
P. Schick4
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
1
2
E
Y. Ebnoutalib4
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
1
3
O
M. Olise4
Bayern MünchenBayern München
1
4
S
Y. Suzuki4
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
0
5
T
P. Tietz4
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
0
6
B
J. Burkardt3
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
1
7
M
I. Matanović3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
1
8
K
M. Krattenmacher3
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
0
9
G
M. Gregoritsch3
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
0
10
F
N. Füllkrug3
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
B
S. Becker3
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
2
G
M. Grüll3
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
3
R
F. Rieder3
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
G
Miguel Gutiérrez3
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
5
G
M. Ginter3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
6
G
S. Guirassy2
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
7
N
A. Nusa2
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
8
D
A. Daghim2
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
9
S
I. Saibari2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
10
G
T. Gomis2
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Bundesliga tips?

We publish a full analysis for every Bundesliga fixture, every morning, with picks when our fixed rules are met.

Why is the Bundesliga so good for over goals betting?

Bundesliga teams play an attacking, pressing style of football. The average goals per game of 3.1 is the highest of any major European league, and over 2.5 goals has hit in over 65% of matches over five seasons.

Are your Bundesliga tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily notifications.

What bookmakers are best for Bundesliga betting?

We don’t promote any single bookmaker. Compare the odds across several licensed operators and always check that a bookmaker is licensed in your country before depositing.

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