🏆 Competitions
Bundesliga Betting Tips
Free daily Bundesliga tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.
Upcoming Bundesliga Fixtures
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Eintracht Frankfurtvs1. FC Köln
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Union BerlinvsBorussia Dortmund
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Hamburger SVvsVfB Stuttgart
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Werder BremenvsSC Paderborn 07
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FC Schalke 04vsFSV Mainz 05
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SV ElversbergvsFC Augsburg
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Bayern MünchenvsRB Leipzig
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Bayer LeverkusenvsSC Freiburg
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Borussia Mönchengladbachvs1899 Hoffenheim
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Market view
| Kick-off | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Over 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln | 49% | 24% | 28% | 68% |
| Sat 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund | 20% | 23% | 57% | 64% |
| Sat 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart | 25% | 23% | 52% | 70% |
| Sat 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 | 53% | 25% | 22% | 62% |
| Sat 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 | 34% | 26% | 40% | 59% |
| Sat 17 Oct 13:30 | SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg | 38% | 25% | 37% | 66% |
| Sat 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern München vs RB Leipzig | 77% | 13% | 10% | 83% |
| Sun 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 55% | 23% | 22% | 64% |
| Sun 18 Oct 15:30 | Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 28% | 23% | 48% | 68% |
No picks for these matches yet: our publication rules need enough data from this season and a strong enough model probability. Until then, this table shows the market's view. Probabilities from Bet365/Unibet odds with the bookmaker margin removed. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished
Market Probabilities
| Match | Source | Home% | Draw% | Away% | O1.5 | U3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. | |||||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 18:30 | Market | 49%@1.95 | 24%@4.00 | 28%@3.40 | 85%@1.11 | 50%@1.91 | 69%@1.36 |
Over 1.5 85% @ 1.11 DC 1X 72% @ 1.28 BTTS Yes 69% @ 1.36 Over 2.5 68% @ 1.40 DC X2 51% @ 1.91 Over 3.5 50% @ 1.91 Under 3.5 50% @ 1.91 Home Win 49% @ 1.95 Under 2.5 32% @ 3.00 BTTS No 31% @ 3.00 Away Win 28% @ 3.40 Draw 24% @ 4.00 Under 1.5 15% @ 6.50 | |||||||
| Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 20%@4.75 | 23%@4.00 | 57%@1.65 | 83%@1.14 | 57%@1.67 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 DC X2 80% @ 1.18 Over 2.5 64% @ 1.50 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Away Win 57% @ 1.65 Under 3.5 57% @ 1.67 DC 1X 43% @ 2.20 Over 3.5 43% @ 2.20 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Under 2.5 36% @ 2.62 Draw 23% @ 4.00 Home Win 20% @ 4.75 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 25%@3.70 | 23%@4.10 | 52%@1.80 | 85%@1.11 | 50%@1.91 | 66%@1.40 |
Over 1.5 85% @ 1.11 DC X2 75% @ 1.28 Over 2.5 70% @ 1.36 BTTS Yes 66% @ 1.40 Away Win 52% @ 1.80 Over 3.5 50% @ 1.91 Under 3.5 50% @ 1.91 DC 1X 48% @ 1.95 BTTS No 34% @ 2.75 Under 2.5 30% @ 3.20 Home Win 25% @ 3.70 Draw 23% @ 4.10 Under 1.5 15% @ 6.50 | |||||||
| Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 53%@1.75 | 25%@3.75 | 22%@4.20 | 81%@1.17 | 59%@1.62 | 61%@1.53 |
Over 1.5 81% @ 1.17 DC 1X 78% @ 1.22 Over 2.5 62% @ 1.53 BTTS Yes 61% @ 1.53 Under 3.5 59% @ 1.62 Home Win 53% @ 1.75 DC X2 47% @ 2.00 Over 3.5 41% @ 2.30 BTTS No 39% @ 2.38 Under 2.5 38% @ 2.50 Draw 25% @ 3.75 Away Win 22% @ 4.20 Under 1.5 19% @ 5.00 | |||||||
| FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 34%@2.75 | 26%@3.60 | 40%@2.30 | 81%@1.17 | 62%@1.53 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 81% @ 1.17 DC X2 66% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Under 3.5 62% @ 1.53 DC 1X 60% @ 1.57 Over 2.5 59% @ 1.62 Under 2.5 41% @ 2.30 Away Win 40% @ 2.30 Over 3.5 38% @ 2.50 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Home Win 34% @ 2.75 Draw 26% @ 3.60 Under 1.5 19% @ 5.00 | |||||||
| SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 38%@2.45 | 25%@3.75 | 37%@2.55 | 83%@1.14 | 55%@1.73 | 66%@1.40 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 Over 2.5 66% @ 1.44 BTTS Yes 66% @ 1.40 DC 1X 63% @ 1.50 DC X2 62% @ 1.53 Under 3.5 55% @ 1.73 Over 3.5 45% @ 2.10 Home Win 38% @ 2.45 Away Win 37% @ 2.55 Under 2.5 34% @ 2.75 BTTS No 34% @ 2.75 Draw 25% @ 3.75 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| Bayern München vs RB Leipzig ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 16:30 | Market | 77%@1.22 | 13%@7.00 | 10%@9.50 | 93%@1.04 | 32%@3.00 | 66%@1.40 |
Over 1.5 93% @ 1.04 DC 1X 90% @ 1.07 Over 2.5 83% @ 1.14 Home Win 77% @ 1.22 Over 3.5 68% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 66% @ 1.40 BTTS No 34% @ 2.75 Under 3.5 32% @ 3.00 DC X2 23% @ 4.00 Under 2.5 17% @ 5.50 Draw 13% @ 7.00 Away Win 10% @ 9.50 Under 1.5 7% @ 13.00 | |||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 13:30 | Market | 55%@1.70 | 23%@4.10 | 22%@4.33 | 83%@1.14 | 57%@1.67 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 DC 1X 78% @ 1.20 Over 2.5 64% @ 1.50 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Under 3.5 57% @ 1.67 Home Win 55% @ 1.70 DC X2 45% @ 2.10 Over 3.5 43% @ 2.20 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Under 2.5 36% @ 2.62 Draw 23% @ 4.10 Away Win 22% @ 4.33 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim ▼ Germany, Bundesliga 15:30 | Market | 28%@3.30 | 23%@4.00 | 48%@1.95 | 85%@1.11 | 53%@1.80 | 66%@1.40 |
Over 1.5 85% @ 1.11 DC X2 72% @ 1.33 Over 2.5 68% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 66% @ 1.40 Under 3.5 53% @ 1.80 DC 1X 52% @ 1.80 Away Win 48% @ 1.95 Over 3.5 47% @ 2.00 BTTS No 34% @ 2.75 Under 2.5 32% @ 3.00 Home Win 28% @ 3.30 Draw 23% @ 4.00 Under 1.5 15% @ 6.50 | |||||||
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Recent Bundesliga Results
1. FC Kölnvs
Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga2-1
SC Freiburgvs
FC Schalke 04Bundesliga2-1
SC Paderborn 07vs
VfB StuttgartBundesliga0-2
Union Berlinvs
SV ElversbergBundesliga1-0
FSV Mainz 05vs
Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga3-4
FC Augsburgvs
Bayern MünchenBundesliga2-2
1899 Hoffenheimvs
Hamburger SVBundesliga2-3
RB Leipzigvs
Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga6-0
Borussia Dortmundvs
Werder BremenBundesligaBorussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -0.5@ 1.312-2SC Paderborn 07vs1899 HoffenheimBundesliga3-1About the Bundesliga
The Bundesliga is Germany’s top flight and the highest-scoring major league in European football. With an average of 3.1 goals per game, the Bundesliga consistently produces more goals than the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or Ligue 1. The attacking philosophy ingrained in German football makes every matchday a feast for goals markets.
For bettors, the Bundesliga is arguably the most straightforward major league for goals-based betting. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in over 65% of Bundesliga matches over the past five seasons, the highest strike rate of any major European competition. Our AI models are heavily calibrated around this statistical reality.
Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.
📈 Live competition numbers
Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.
3.30
goals per match on average
65.4%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
61.5%
of matches see both teams score
44.8%
home wins
Based on 353 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.
Key Betting Facts: Bundesliga
Highest goals per game in Europe
The Bundesliga averages 3.1 goals per game, significantly above the European average of 2.6. Over 2.5 goals has hit in over 65% of matches over the past five seasons, making it the single most reliable bet type in German football.
Friday fixtures show higher home rates
Bundesliga matches on Friday evenings show a measurably higher home win rate than Saturday and Sunday fixtures. This scheduling pattern is well documented, and bookmakers are aware of it too.
Bayern’s historic dominance
Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga in 11 of 12 consecutive seasons. They dominate mid-table and lower sides, which bookmakers reflect in very short 1X2 prices.
Second-half scoring surge
The Bundesliga has a higher proportion of goals scored in the second half than any other major European league. Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals bets benefit from the typical Bundesliga pattern of matches opening up after halftime.
New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.
How our analysis works
We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.
1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.
Our Bundesliga Betting Record
81.3% of our published tips won
16 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 09 Oct 2026❌ Loss
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Pick: Borussia Dortmund Asian Handicap -0.5 @ 1.31
💡 Market consensus puts this at 72.9% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.31 imply about 76% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 19 Sep 2026✅ Win
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Pick: Werder Bremen Asian Handicap +0.0 @ 1.81
💡 Market consensus puts this at 53.3% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.81 imply about 55% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 05 Sep 2026✅ Win
SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg
Pick: SC Paderborn 07 Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.30
💡 Model gives 86.1% probability for this selection. At odds 1.30 this represents +12.3% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 8 | DLDWW |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 8 | DWDWL |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 | LWLWD |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 | WLDLW |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | WLLWL |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 | WWLLL |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 | LDWDL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 | LDWLD |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 | LWLLD |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | WLLLD |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 | LLWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation
Top Scorers
| # | Player | Goals | Team | Assists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S | P. Schick | 5 | | 1 |
| 2 | N | C. Nkunku | 4 | | 1 |
| 3 | E | Y. Ebnoutalib | 4 | | 1 |
| 4 | O | M. Olise | 4 | | 1 |
| 5 | S | Y. Suzuki | 4 | | 0 |
| 6 | F | N. Füllkrug | 4 | | 0 |
| 7 | T | P. Tietz | 4 | | 0 |
| 8 | N | A. Nusa | 3 | | 3 |
| 9 | M | I. Matanović | 3 | | 1 |
| 10 | B | J. Burkardt | 3 | | 1 |
Top Assists
| # | Player | Assists | Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | M. Grüll | 4 | |
| 2 | N | A. Nusa | 3 | |
| 3 | K | H. Kane | 3 | |
| 4 | B | S. Becker | 3 | |
| 5 | R | F. Rieder | 3 | |
| 6 | G | Miguel Gutiérrez | 3 | |
| 7 | G | M. Ginter | 3 | |
| 8 | S | I. Saibari | 2 | |
| 9 | G | T. Gomis | 2 | |
| 10 | D | A. Daghim | 2 | |
Frequently Asked Questions
How often do you post Bundesliga tips?
We publish a full analysis for every Bundesliga fixture, every morning, with picks when our fixed rules are met.
Why is the Bundesliga so good for over goals betting?
Bundesliga teams play an attacking, pressing style of football. The average goals per game of 3.1 is the highest of any major European league, and over 2.5 goals has hit in over 65% of matches over five seasons.
Are your Bundesliga tips free?
Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily notifications.
What bookmakers are best for Bundesliga betting?
We don’t promote any single bookmaker. Compare the odds across several licensed operators and always check that a bookmaker is licensed in your country before depositing.
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