Sun 8 Nov14:30Upcoming

⚽ Bundesliga

1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

1. FC Köln face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: 1. FC Köln have 1 win from their last 5, while Bayer Leverkusen have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.3-2.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.28 – 2.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.9%	6.5%	7.4%	5.6%	3.2%
1	3.7%	8.3%	9.5%	7.2%	4.1%
2	2.4%	5.3%	6.1%	4.6%	2.6%
3	1.0%	2.3%	2.6%	2.0%	1.1%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

1. FC Köln winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

📊 Key numbers

1. FC Köln 19%Draw 25%Bayer Leverkusen 56%

19%25%56%

56%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

69%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen. Wins shown from 1. FC Köln’s perspective: Bayer Leverkusen 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	1. FC Köln	1 – 2	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2025-12-13	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 0	1. FC Köln	L
2024-03-03	1. FC Köln	0 – 2	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2023-10-08	Bayer Leverkusen	3 – 0	1. FC Köln	L

📈 Recent form

1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Union Berlin. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt.

DUnion Berlin 1-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
W1. FC Köln 5-0 Union BerlinDFB Pokal
D1. FC Köln 0-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
LEintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
W1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to 1. FC Nürnberg. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to VfB Stuttgart.

LBayer Leverkusen 2-4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 5-2 1. FC NürnbergDFB Pokal
LHoffenheim 3-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WOFI 0-2 Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Europa League
WBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1

1Flekken

4Quansah

12Tapsoba

2Medina

3Gutiérrez

6Fernández

24García

17Vázquez

30Maza

9Moreira

14Schick

30Bülter

10El Mala

37Maina

3Sosa

47Moore

23Okon-Engstler

17Castro-Montes

5Krauß

22Simpson-Pusey

2Schmied

1Schwäbe

1. FC Köln 3-4-2-1

Bayer Leverkusen

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs VfB Stuttgart, 31/10

Coach: Carles Martínez

Bench last match8Andrich28Blaswich22Boniface42Culbreath39Doganay7Hofmann15Oermann10Tillman37Buck

1. FC Köln

Last starting XI (3-4-2-1) vs Union Berlin, 27/10

Coach: René Wagner

Bench last match20Zieler7Waldschmidt29Thielmann28Sebulonsen14Mensah24Lochoshvili8Bergmann Jóhannesson11Heskey19El Mala

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices 1. FC Köln at 19% to win and Bayer Leverkusen at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen Win	56%	55%	@ 1.73
Draw	25%	23%	@ 4.20
1. FC Köln Win	19%	22%	@ 4.33

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.20 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	80%	78%	@ 1.20
1. FC Köln or Draw	43%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-2.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	87%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	69%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	53%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	47%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	31%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	13%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	35%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

1. FC Köln 22%Draw 23%Bayer Leverkusen 55%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.3-2.3 scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen.

What is the predicted score for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.28 for 1. FC Köln and 2.27 for Bayer Leverkusen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do 1. FC Köln and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.