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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Cruzeiro vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Cruzeiro face Bahia in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5, while Bahia have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Cruzeiro won 2, Bahia won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.8-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Cruzeiro vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.62

64%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.81 – 1.21 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.9%	5.9%	3.6%	1.4%	0.4%
1	8.8%	10.7%	6.5%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.0%	9.7%	5.9%	2.4%	0.7%
3	4.8%	5.8%	3.5%	1.4%	0.4%
4	2.2%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Cruzeiro winDrawBahia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 64% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Cruzeiro 50%Draw 28%Bahia 22%

50%28%22%

50%

Cruzeiro Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Cruzeiro and Bahia. Wins shown from Cruzeiro’s perspective: Cruzeiro 2 · 2 drawn · Bahia 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Bahia	1 – 2	Cruzeiro	W
2024-10-19	Cruzeiro	1 – 1	Bahia	D
2024-06-23	Bahia	4 – 1	Cruzeiro	L
2023-10-25	Cruzeiro	3 – 0	Bahia	W
2023-06-10	Bahia	2 – 2	Cruzeiro	D

📈 Recent form

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Grêmio. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at RB Bragantino.

WAtlético Mineiro 0-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 1-0 RemoBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LRB Bragantino 4-2 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to São Paulo. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Flamengo.

WBahia 3-2 São PauloBrazilian Série A
DSantos 1-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LBahia 0-3 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WBahia 1-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 1-0 BahiaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Cruzeiro

Felipe MoraisMuscle Injury
Gabriel PecBroken Leg
Matheus PereiraSuspended (cards)
L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
L. VillalbaSuspended (cards)
William FurtadoSuspended (cards)
Joao MarceloInjury

Bahia

Leo VieiraKnee Injury

🧩 Line-ups

Bahia 4-3-3

1Ronaldo

44Victor

33Duarte

4Kanu

46Juba

14Erick

5Acevedo

11Nestor

99Olivera

9Véliz

10Ribeiro

19Jorge

8Gerson

9Rodrigues

99Arroyo

5Lucas

29Romero

27Rojas

34Jesus

15Bruno

23Fagner

81Costa

Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1

Bahia

Official starting XI (4-3-3)

Substitutes17Herrera31Gómez43Gustavo66Guilherme6Lucas77Pablo15Araújo8Alexandre16Pulga23Sanabria7Ademir27Everaldo

Cruzeiro

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Substitutes41Aragão1Cássio6Viña2Moraes7Henrique11Marquinhos67Costa20Wesley16Silva97Rodríguez94Wanderson22Villarreal

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Cruzeiro at 50% to win and Bahia at 22%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cruzeiro Win	50%	56%	@ 1.70
Draw	28%	24%	@ 3.90
Bahia Win	22%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.18 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cruzeiro or Draw	76%	80%	@ 1.18
Bahia or Draw	48%	44%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	64%	59%	@ 1.62
Over 2.5	58%	61%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	42%	39%	@ 2.40
Over 3.5	36%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	20%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Cruzeiro 56%Draw 23%Bahia 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 64% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.2 scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Bahia.

What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Bahia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.81 for Cruzeiro and 1.21 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Cruzeiro and Bahia play?

Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.