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⚽ Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 15:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AZ Alkmaar face Groningen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 15:45 UTC. Recent form: AZ Alkmaar have 1 win from their last 5, while Groningen have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, AZ Alkmaar won 2, Groningen won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.05 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	4.6%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
1	7.2%	9.3%	6.1%	2.6%	0.9%
2	7.4%	9.6%	6.2%	2.7%	0.9%
3	5.0%	6.5%	4.3%	1.8%	0.6%
4	2.6%	3.4%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

AZ Alkmaar winDrawGroningen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

AZ Alkmaar 51%Draw 27%Groningen 22%

51%27%22%

51%

AZ Alkmaar Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen. Wins shown from AZ Alkmaar’s perspective: AZ Alkmaar 2 · 1 drawn · Groningen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-22	Groningen	3 – 0	AZ Alkmaar	L
2025-08-10	AZ Alkmaar	4 – 1	Groningen	W
2025-05-11	AZ Alkmaar	3 – 0	Groningen	W
2024-08-25	Groningen	0 – 0	AZ Alkmaar	D

📈 Recent form

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Ararat-Armenia. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Ajax.

LAjax 1-0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
LAZ Alkmaar 0-2 TwenteEredivisie
WArarat-Armenia 0-4 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
DCambuur 2-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 2-1 Hapoel Beer ShevaUEFA Europa League

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at Excelsior. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Sparta Rotterdam.

LGroningen 2-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
LGroningen 0-2 EmmenKNVB Beker
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 GroningenEredivisie
LGroningen 2-5 AjaxEredivisie
WExcelsior 1-5 GroningenEredivisie

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

AZ Alkmaar

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Ajax, 31/10

Coach: L. Echteld

Bench last match54Bergraaf27bouziane5Chávez8Clasie29Hoedt30Kasius18Kovacs2Maikuma20Natali1Owusu-Oduro14Stengs75de Wit

Groningen

Last starting XI (-) vs Emmen, 29/10

Etienne Vaessen, Jorg Schreuders, Thijmen Blokzijl, Márk Csinger, Wouter Prins, Tygo Land, Pelle Clement, David van der Werff, Thom van Bergen, Jacob Ondrejka, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson

Coach: Dick Lukkien

Bench last match33Hateboer5Rente7Hernes19Zawada8Jonge13Štubljar30Boevink42Mosselaar12Brandis16Nordin44Dillema20Eggens

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AZ Alkmaar at 51% to win and Groningen at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar Win	51%	62%	@ 1.53
Draw	27%	21%	@ 4.50
Groningen Win	22%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AZ Alkmaar or Draw at 1.14 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	76%	83%	@ 1.14
Groningen or Draw	48%	38%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	65%	67%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	57%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	43%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	35%	33%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	15%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	37%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

AZ Alkmaar 62%Draw 21%Groningen 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.

Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen.

What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.05 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.30 for Groningen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AZ Alkmaar and Groningen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 15:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.