Sun 8 Nov19:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Lens vs Marseille Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lens vs Marseille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lens face Marseille in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Lens have 3 wins from their last 5, while Marseille have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lens won 2, Marseille won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.8-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lens vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lens or Draw @ 1.36

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.78 – 1.48 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	5.7%	4.2%	2.1%	0.8%
1	6.8%	10.1%	7.5%	3.7%	1.4%
2	6.1%	9.0%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
3	3.6%	5.3%	4.0%	1.9%	0.7%
4	1.6%	2.4%	1.8%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Lens winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lens vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Lens or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Lens 44%Draw 23%Marseille 34%

44%23%34%

44%

Lens Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lens and Marseille. Wins shown from Lens’s perspective: Lens 2 · Marseille 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-24	Marseille	3 – 1	Lens	L
2025-10-25	Lens	2 – 1	Marseille	W
2025-03-08	Marseille	0 – 1	Lens	W
2024-11-23	Lens	1 – 3	Marseille	L
2024-04-28	Marseille	2 – 1	Lens	L

📈 Recent form

Lens

Lens come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Estac Troyes. Their most recent defeat was 1-9 at home to Como.

LLens 1-9 ComoUEFA Champions League
LLille 1-0 LensLigue 1
WLens 2-1 Paris FCLigue 1
LClub Brugge KV 3-0 LensUEFA Champions League
WEstac Troyes 1-3 LensLigue 1

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Angers. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Sturm Graz.

WMarseille 2-0 ToulouseLigue 1
WMarseille 4-3 Le HavreLigue 1
LSturm Graz 1-0 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
WAngers 2-5 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Marseille 4-1-4-1

1de Lange

22Weah

4Egan-Riley

21Aguerd

33Emerson

23Højbjerg

77Harit

8Abdelli

6Nnadi

14Paixão

9Gouiri

9Hazard

7Sotoca

10Thauvin

14Udol

27Cuisance

21Haidara

23Abdulhamid

20Todibo

6Baidoo

2Aguilar

40Risser

Lens 3-4-2-1

Marseille

Last starting XI (4-1-4-1) vs Toulouse, 01/11

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Bench last match92Vermot74Bezahaf7Gomes25Garcia42Kamissoko19Kondogbia18Meité11Maupay43Mmadi

Lens

Last starting XI (3-4-2-1) vs Lille, 30/10

Coach: Yannick Cahuzac

Bench last match32Antonio5Bulatović16Gorgelin24Gradit29Ivanović28Kadile38Soares22Skóraś8Titraoui

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lens at 44% to win and Marseille at 34%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens Win	44%	45%	@ 2.15
Marseille Win	34%	31%	@ 3.10
Draw	23%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lens or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens or Draw	68%	69%	@ 1.36
Marseille or Draw	58%	55%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	63%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	59%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	41%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	37%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	16%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	36%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Lens 44%Draw 24%Marseille 31%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lens vs Marseille?

Our model's pick is Lens or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Lens vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline for Lens vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Lens vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Lens and 1.48 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lens and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.