🏆 Competitions

Serie A

Serie A Betting Tips

Free daily Serie A tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

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Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Genoa vs Fiorentina
Italy, Serie A
Sat 10 Oct
13:00		Over 1.573.6%@ 1.33
Torino vs Udinese
Italy, Serie A
Mon 12 Oct
18:45		Over 1.572.9%@ 1.36
Atalanta vs Venezia
Italy, Serie A
Mon 12 Oct
16:30		Atalanta Win71.6%@ 1.55
Cagliari vs Juventus
Italy, Serie A
Sun 11 Oct
18:45		Over 1.571.5%@ 1.33

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Italy, Serie A
Sun 11 Oct
16:00		Over 2.559.7%@ 1.80+7.4%
Lazio vs Monza
Italy, Serie A
Sun 11 Oct
13:00		Over 2.556.3%@ 1.91+7.6%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.8%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Genoa vs Fiorentina ▼
Italy, Serie A
13:00		Market31%@3.0029%@3.2540%@2.3072%@1.3375%@1.2852%@1.80
Under 3.5
75%
@ 1.28
Over 1.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC X2
69%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
60%
@ 1.57
Under 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
Away Win
40%
@ 2.30
Home Win
31%
@ 3.00
Draw
29%
@ 3.25
Under 1.5
28%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
25%
@ 3.75
Inter vs Parma ▼
Italy, Serie A
16:00		Market83%@1.1411%@8.506%@15.0086%@1.1050%@1.9145%@2.05
DC 1X
94%
@ 1.03
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
Home Win
83%
@ 1.14
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
BTTS No
55%
@ 1.70
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS Yes
45%
@ 2.05
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
DC X2
17%
@ 5.50
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Draw
11%
@ 8.50
Away Win
6%
@ 15.00
Napoli vs Frosinone ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market65%@1.4220%@4.5015%@6.2583%@1.1457%@1.6758%@1.62
DC 1X
85%
@ 1.12
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
Home Win
65%
@ 1.42
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Under 3.5
57%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
43%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.62
DC X2
35%
@ 2.75
Draw
20%
@ 4.50
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
Away Win
15%
@ 6.25
Como vs AS Roma ▼
Italy, Serie A
10:30		Market37%@2.5027%@3.5036%@2.6079%@1.2064%@1.5061%@1.53
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC 1X
64%
@ 1.50
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
DC X2
63%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Home Win
37%
@ 2.50
Away Win
36%
@ 2.60
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Lazio vs Monza ▼
Italy, Serie A
13:00		Market60%@1.5524%@3.9016%@6.0075%@1.2870%@1.3648%@1.95
DC 1X
84%
@ 1.12
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
Home Win
60%
@ 1.55
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
DC X2
40%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Draw
24%
@ 3.90
Away Win
16%
@ 6.00
Lecce vs Bologna ▼
Italy, Serie A
13:00		Market23%@4.0028%@3.3049%@1.9170%@1.3675%@1.2848%@1.95
DC X2
77%
@ 1.22
Under 3.5
75%
@ 1.28
Over 1.5
70%
@ 1.36
Under 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
DC 1X
51%
@ 1.83
Away Win
49%
@ 1.91
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Under 1.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
28%
@ 3.30
Over 3.5
25%
@ 3.75
Home Win
23%
@ 4.00
Sassuolo vs AC Milan ▼
Italy, Serie A
16:00		Market22%@4.2025%@3.7052%@1.8076%@1.2568%@1.4053%@1.75
DC X2
78%
@ 1.22
Over 1.5
76%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
68%
@ 1.40
Over 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
53%
@ 1.75
Away Win
52%
@ 1.80
DC 1X
48%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
47%
@ 2.00
Over 3.5
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
25%
@ 3.70
Under 1.5
24%
@ 4.00
Home Win
22%
@ 4.20
Cagliari vs Juventus ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market14%@6.5025%@3.7060%@1.5572%@1.3373%@1.3047%@2.00
DC X2
86%
@ 1.11
Under 3.5
73%
@ 1.30
Over 1.5
72%
@ 1.33
Away Win
60%
@ 1.55
Under 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
BTTS No
53%
@ 1.75
Over 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS Yes
47%
@ 2.00
DC 1X
40%
@ 2.38
Under 1.5
28%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
25%
@ 3.70
Home Win
14%
@ 6.50
Atalanta vs Venezia ▼
Italy, Serie A
16:30		Market60%@1.5523%@4.1018%@5.2581%@1.1760%@1.5758%@1.62
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Home Win
60%
@ 1.55
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
DC X2
40%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.38
Draw
23%
@ 4.10
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Torino vs Udinese ▼
Italy, Serie A
18:45		Market40%@2.3029%@3.2031%@3.0070%@1.3676%@1.2552%@1.80
Under 3.5
76%
@ 1.25
Over 1.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
69%
@ 1.36
DC X2
60%
@ 1.57
Under 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Home Win
40%
@ 2.30
Away Win
31%
@ 3.00
Under 1.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
29%
@ 3.20
Over 3.5
24%
@ 4.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Serie A

Serie A is Italy’s top flight and one of the most tactically sophisticated leagues in European football. Home to Juventus, Inter Milan, AC Milan, Napoli and Roma, Serie A is renowned for its defensive discipline, tactical complexity and the unpredictability that comes from closely matched mid-table clubs.

For bettors, Serie A rewards patience and tactical knowledge. It is the lowest-scoring major European league, which makes under goals markets and Asian handicap bets particularly attractive for informed bettors. Understanding team motivation and defensive organisation is more important in Serie A than in any other top European competition.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.48
goals per match on average
46.7%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
46.7%
of matches see both teams score
39.5%
home wins

Based on 430 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Serie A

⚽
Lowest scoring major league
Serie A averages just 2.5 goals per game, the lowest of any major European league. Under 2.5 goals is a consistently strong market, particularly in clashes between defensive mid-table sides.
🏠
Inter’s defensive dominance
Inter Milan have kept a clean sheet in over 45% of home Serie A matches over the past three seasons.
🎯
Low-scoring derbies
The Derby della Madonnina (AC Milan vs Inter) and Derby d’Italia (Juventus vs Inter) are among the lowest-scoring derbies in European football. Under 2.5 goals has hit in over 60% of these fixtures in the past decade.
🏆
Promoted sides go under
Newly promoted Serie A clubs show the highest rate of under 1.5 goals matches of any major European league in their first season back in the top flight. This is a reliable and exploitable pattern.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Serie A Betting Record

59.6% of our published tips won 26 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 20 Sep 2026✅ Win
AC Milan vs Lecce
Pick: AC Milan Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.3% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 19 Sep 2026✅ Win
Bologna vs Torino
Pick: Torino Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.4% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 18 Sep 2026🔽 Half Loss
Monza vs Sassuolo
Pick: Sassuolo Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.30
💡 Our model puts this at 80.6%; the odds of 1.30 imply about 77%. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Serie A match analyses →

Serie A Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1AS Roma AS Roma5410143+1113
DWWWW
2Inter Inter5410158+713
DWWWW
3Lazio Lazio541083+513
WDWWW
4Cagliari Cagliari540152+312
WWWLW
5AC Milan AC Milan5320104+611
WDDWW
6Frosinone Frosinone531194+510
WDWWL
7Juventus Juventus531184+410
WLDWW
8Como Como531196+310
LWWWD
9Napoli Napoli521276+17
DWLLW
10Sassuolo Sassuolo521299+07
LWDWL
11Atalanta Atalanta520357-26
LLLWW
12Lecce Lecce5203510-56
LWLLW
13Udinese Udinese5113811-34
LLLWD
14Torino Torino511358-34
DLWLL
15Parma Parma511347-34
WLDLL
16Monza Monza5113812-44
WLDLL
17Fiorentina Fiorentina5113612-64
DWLLL
18Bologna Bologna502336-32
DLDLL
19Genoa Genoa5014310-71
LDLLL
20Venezia Venezia5005413-90
LLLLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
M
D. Malen6
AS RomaAS Roma
0
2
R
A. Raimondo4
FrosinoneFrosinone
0
3
M
Lautaro Martínez4
InterInter
0
4
V
Gustavo Varela4
MonzaMonza
0
5
A
Vasilije Adžić3
SassuoloSassuolo
1
6
K
G. Kvernadze3
FrosinoneFrosinone
1
7
M
Franco Mastantuono3
FiorentinaFiorentina
0
8
F
D. Frattesi3
LazioLazio
0
9
M
Diego Moreira3
AC MilanAC Milan
0
10
M
D. Maldini3
CagliariCagliari
0

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
D
P. Dybala4
AS RomaAS Roma
2
S
R. Schmid3
FrosinoneFrosinone
3
D
A. Diouf3
InterInter
4
R
A. Rabiot2
AC MilanAC Milan
5
T
M. Thuram2
InterInter
6
M
Ricardo Mangas2
MonzaMonza
7
Z
M. Zaccagni2
LazioLazio
8
C
L. Colombo2
GenoaGenoa
9
T
Nuno Tavares2
LazioLazio
10
C
S. Chukwueze2
AC MilanAC Milan

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Serie A tips?

We post Serie A tips every weekend and on midweek matchdays throughout the season.

Is Serie A good for under goals betting?

Yes, Serie A is historically the lowest-scoring major European league. Under 2.5 goals is a consistently strong market in Italian football, particularly in mid-table clashes.

Are your Serie A tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily notifications.

Which Italian clubs are most reliable to bet on?

Inter Milan and Juventus have the most consistent home records in Serie A.

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