Jagiellonia

Thu 20 Aug4-0Finished

Saburtalo

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Jagiellonia 4-0 Saburtalo

Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo finished 4-0. Jagiellonia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Jagiellonia face Saburtalo in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Saburtalo +2 @ 1.39

94%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.63 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	7.1%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.6%	6.8%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.5%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.1%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Jagiellonia winDrawSaburtalo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Saburtalo with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 94% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Saburtalo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

Jagiellonia 18%Draw 36%Saburtalo 46%

18%36%46%

46%

Saburtalo Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Slask Wroclaw. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Legia Warszawa.

LJagiellonia 1-3 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
LOlympiakos Piraeus 2-1 JagielloniaUEFA Europa League
LWisla Krakow 2-0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
WJagiellonia 2-1 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
LLech Poznan 2-1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Jagiellonia at 18% to win and Saburtalo at 46%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Saburtalo Win	46%	11%	@ 8.50
Draw	36%	18%	@ 5.10
Jagiellonia Win	18%	71%	@ 1.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Saburtalo or Draw at 3.05 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Saburtalo or Draw	76%	29%	@ 3.05
Jagiellonia or Draw	48%	89%	@ 1.04

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	78%	@ 1.18
Under 3.5	69%	64%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	53%	57%	@ 1.61
Under 2.5	47%	43%	@ 2.12
Over 3.5	31%	36%	@ 2.55
Under 1.5	23%	22%	@ 4.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	47%	@ 1.96
BTTS No	44%	53%	@ 1.72

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Jagiellonia or Saburtalo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Saburtalo +2	94%	68%	@ 1.39
Saburtalo +1.75	93%	60%	@ 1.57
Saburtalo +1.5	91%	53%	@ 1.78
Saburtalo +1.25	88%	48%	@ 2.00
Saburtalo +1	84%	40%	@ 2.36
Saburtalo +0.75	80%	34%	@ 2.75
Saburtalo +0.5	76%	30%	@ 3.13
Saburtalo +0.25	70%	24%	@ 4.01
Saburtalo 0	64%	15%	@ 6.40
Saburtalo -0.25	58%	14%	@ 6.80
Saburtalo -0.5	52%	14%	@ 6.65
Jagiellonia +0.5	48%	86%	1.08
Jagiellonia +0.25	42%	86%	1.10
Jagiellonia 0	36%	85%	1.12
Jagiellonia -0.25	30%	76%	1.24
Jagiellonia -0.5	24%	70%	1.34
Jagiellonia -0.75	20%	66%	1.45
Jagiellonia -1	16%	60%	1.57
Jagiellonia -1.25	12%	52%	1.83
Jagiellonia -1.5	9%	47%	2.00
Jagiellonia -1.75	7%	40%	2.40
Jagiellonia -2	6%	32%	2.96

📈 How the market moved

Jagiellonia 71%Draw 19%Saburtalo 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

Our model's main pick is Saburtalo with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 94% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

Our model makes a Saburtalo win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo.

What is the predicted score for Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Jagiellonia and 1.17 for Saburtalo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Jagiellonia and Saburtalo play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 16:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.