vs
⚽ Championship
Derby vs Cardiff Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Cardiff in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Derby face Cardiff in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Derby won 1, Cardiff won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Cardiff with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Derby vs Cardiff is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Cardiff with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Cardiff to win or draw at odds 1.88 (+3.2% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Derby and Cardiff. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Derby 1 · Cardiff 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | Cardiff | 2 – 1 | Derby | L |
| 2024-09-14 | Derby | 1 – 0 | Cardiff | W |
📈 Recent form
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Mansfield Town. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Charlton.
- LCharlton 2-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 LincolnLeague Cup
- DRotherham 1-1 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
- LBurton Albion 1-0 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
- WMansfield Town 1-3 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
Cardiff come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Cork City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DCardiff 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
- WCardiff 3-2 Swindon TownLeague Cup
- WCardiff 4-1 AS RomaFriendlies Clubs
- WForest Green 1-5 CardiffFriendlies Clubs
- WCork City 1-6 CardiffFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- W. FishNot in squad
- D. LawlorInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derby at 43% to win and Cardiff at 27%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.49 | +6.1% |
| Cardiff Win | 27% | @ 3.82 | +2.3% |
| Derby Win | 43% | @ 1.93 | -17.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cardiff or Draw at 1.81 (55% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff or Draw | 55% | @ 1.81 | -0.2% |
| Derby or Draw | 71% | @ 1.24 | -12.0% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 49% | @ 1.97 | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | @ 1.29 | -3.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | @ 3.46 | -5.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | @ 1.30 | -5.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | @ 1.84 | -6.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | @ 1.93 | -6.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | @ 1.79 | -7.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or Cardiff is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff 0 | 42% | @ 2.85 | +19.8% |
| Cardiff -0.25 | 36% | @ 3.34 | +18.8% |
| Cardiff -0.75 | 25% | @ 4.80 | +18.7% |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 48% | @ 2.19 | +6.2% |
| Derby -2 | 15% | @ 6.80 | +4.9% |
| Cardiff +0.5 | 55% | @ 1.88 | +3.2% |
| Cardiff +0.75 | 61% | @ 1.65 | +0.1% |
| Cardiff +1.5 | 78% | 1.27 | -0.9% |
| Cardiff +1 | 66% | 1.49 | -0.9% |
| Cardiff +1.25 | 72% | 1.36 | -1.9% |
| Cardiff +1.75 | 81% | 1.19 | -3.4% |
| Cardiff +2 | 85% | 1.10 | -7.0% |
| Derby +0.5 | 71% | 1.26 | -10.5% |
| Derby -0.75 | 39% | 2.26 | -11.1% |
| Derby +0.75 | 75% | 1.18 | -11.2% |
| Derby -1.25 | 28% | 3.17 | -11.7% |
| Derby -0.25 | 52% | 1.69 | -13.0% |
| Derby -0.5 | 45% | 1.91 | -13.8% |
| Derby +0.25 | 64% | 1.33 | -14.3% |
| Derby -1.75 | 19% | 4.50 | -15.4% |
| Derby 0 | 58% | 1.42 | -17.9% |
| Derby -1.5 | 22% | 3.56 | -20.9% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 50% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 49% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 38% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.48 for the home side, 1.14 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our main pick is Cardiff with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Cardiff to win or draw at 1.88 (+3.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Derby vs Cardiff.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Cardiff?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Derby and 1.05 for Cardiff. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derby and Cardiff play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Bologna
Lazio
Baltika
Rubin
Osasuna
Levante
Kocaelispor
Amed
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Reims
AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.