⚽ Championship
Derby vs Cardiff Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Cardiff in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Derby 2-2 Cardiff
Derby vs Cardiff finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Derby face Cardiff in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Derby won 1, Cardiff won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Cardiff with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 11.3% | 11.9% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Derby vs Cardiff comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Cardiff with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Derby and Cardiff. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: Derby 1 · 1 drawn · Cardiff 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Derby | 2 – 2 | Cardiff | D |
| 2025-01-25 | Cardiff | 2 – 1 | Derby | L |
| 2024-09-14 | Derby | 1 – 0 | Cardiff | W |
📈 Recent form
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
- WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
Cardiff come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Charlton. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bolton.
- WCardiff 3-1 CharltonChampionship
- LBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
- DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
- LQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- S. SzmodicsThigh Injury
- C. ChambersKnee Injury
- W. FishHernia
- D. LawlorMuscle Injury
- G. OshoKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derby at 43% to win and Cardiff at 27%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 43% | 47% | @ 1.96 |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Cardiff Win | 27% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.25 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby or Draw | 71% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Cardiff or Draw | 55% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 71% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 74% | @ 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 53% | @ 1.74 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 48% | 49% | @ 1.91 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or Cardiff is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +2 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Cardiff +1.75 | 81% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Cardiff +1.5 | 78% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Derby +0.75 | 75% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Cardiff +1.25 | 72% | 70% | 1.36 |
| Derby +0.5 | 71% | – | 1.26 |
| Cardiff +1 | 66% | – | 1.49 |
| Derby +0.25 | 64% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Cardiff +0.75 | 61% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Derby 0 | 58% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Cardiff +0.5 | 55% | 50% | @ 1.88 |
| Derby -0.25 | 52% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Cardiff +0.25 | 48% | 44% | @ 2.19 |
| Derby -0.5 | 45% | 50% | 1.91 |
| Cardiff 0 | 42% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
| Derby -0.75 | 39% | 42% | 2.26 |
| Cardiff -0.25 | 36% | 28% | @ 3.34 |
| Derby -1.25 | 28% | 30% | 3.17 |
| Cardiff -0.75 | 25% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Derby -1.5 | 22% | 26% | 3.56 |
| Derby -1.75 | 19% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Derby -2 | 15% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model's main pick is Cardiff with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Derby vs Cardiff?
Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Derby vs Cardiff.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Cardiff?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Derby and 1.05 for Cardiff. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derby and Cardiff play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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