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⚽ Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Fortuna Sittard face AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.3-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +1.5 start at odds 1.52, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Fortuna Sittard with a +0.75 start at odds 2.10 (+29.3% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective: Fortuna Sittard 2 · AZ Alkmaar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 – 0 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
| 2025-12-21 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 – 3 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
| 2025-02-23 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 – 0 | Fortuna Sittard | L |
| 2024-10-06 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 0 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
| 2024-02-17 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 – 2 | AZ Alkmaar | L |
📈 Recent form
Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Metz.
- WFortuna Sittard 3-1 CambuurEredivisie
- DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- WFortuna Sittard 2-1 Apoel NicosiaFriendlies Clubs
- LMetz 3-1 Fortuna SittardFriendlies Clubs
- LOlympiakos Piraeus 3-1 Fortuna SittardFriendlies Clubs
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at PSV Eindhoven. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WUtrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 0-4 AZ AlkmaarSuper Cup
- WAZ Alkmaar 3-2 Olympiakos PiraeusFriendlies Clubs
- WAZ Alkmaar 4-0 GenkFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. SimonsHamstring Injury
- I. MarquezInjury
- J. ClasieInjury
- J. HornkampAnkle Injury
- D. KasiusGroin Injury
- S. ResinkKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fortuna Sittard at 30% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard Win | 30% | @ 4.75 | +41.0% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 4.35 | +13.8% |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 44% | @ 1.59 | -29.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fortuna Sittard or Draw at 2.30 (56% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard or Draw | 56% | @ 2.30 | +28.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 70% | @ 1.18 | -17.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 43% | @ 2.62 | +12.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | @ 5.50 | +12.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 65% | @ 1.65 | +7.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | @ 1.14 | -9.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | @ 1.48 | -15.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | @ 2.20 | -23.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 40% | @ 2.38 | -4.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | @ 1.53 | -8.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard 0 | 43% | @ 3.90 | +67.1% |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.75 | 25% | @ 6.40 | +62.1% |
| Fortuna Sittard -0.25 | 36% | @ 4.40 | +59.7% |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.25 | 49% | @ 2.85 | +40.4% |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.75 | 61% | @ 2.10 | +29.3% |
| Fortuna Sittard +0.5 | 56% | @ 2.31 | +28.8% |
| Fortuna Sittard +1 | 67% | @ 1.84 | +23.2% |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.25 | 73% | @ 1.66 | +20.7% |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.5 | 78% | @ 1.52 | +19.4% |
| Fortuna Sittard +1.75 | 82% | @ 1.40 | +14.4% |
| Fortuna Sittard +2 | 85% | @ 1.27 | +8.0% |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.75 | 75% | 1.12 | -16.4% |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.5 | 70% | 1.17 | -18.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.25 | 64% | 1.20 | -23.5% |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 51% | 1.43 | -27.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar 0 | 57% | 1.26 | -27.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 44% | 1.58 | -29.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 39% | 1.75 | -32.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar -1 | 33% | 1.98 | -34.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.25 | 27% | 2.25 | -38.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.75 | 18% | 2.94 | -46.2% |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | 22% | 2.45 | -47.2% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 43% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 48% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 43% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.15 for the home side, 1.46 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +1.5 start at odds 1.52, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Fortuna Sittard with a +0.75 start at 2.10 (+29.3% value).
Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar.
What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.