Sat 22 Aug0-2Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

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Result: Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar

Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar finished 0-2. AZ Alkmaar won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Fortuna Sittard face AZ Alkmaar in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.3-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Fortuna Sittard +2 @ 1.27

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.30 – 1.67 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	8.6%	7.2%	4.0%	1.7%
1	6.7%	11.1%	9.3%	5.2%	2.2%
2	4.3%	7.2%	6.0%	3.4%	1.4%
3	1.9%	3.1%	2.6%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.6%	1.0%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Fortuna Sittard winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Fortuna Sittard 30%Draw 26%AZ Alkmaar 44%

30%26%44%

44%

AZ Alkmaar Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Fortuna Sittard’s perspective: Fortuna Sittard 2 · AZ Alkmaar 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Fortuna Sittard	0 – 2	AZ Alkmaar	L
2026-04-04	AZ Alkmaar	2 – 0	Fortuna Sittard	L
2025-12-21	Fortuna Sittard	4 – 3	AZ Alkmaar	W
2025-02-23	AZ Alkmaar	1 – 0	Fortuna Sittard	L
2024-10-06	Fortuna Sittard	1 – 0	AZ Alkmaar	W

📈 Recent form

Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Ajax.

WWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
WADO Den Haag 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
WGroningen 2-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.

WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fortuna Sittard

R. BayramKnee Injury
I. MarquezInjury
K. PetersonNot in squad
S. SimonsHamstring Injury

AZ Alkmaar

D. KasiusGroin Injury
S. ResinkKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fortuna Sittard at 30% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar Win	44%	59%	@ 1.57
Fortuna Sittard Win	30%	18%	@ 5.10
Draw	26%	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AZ Alkmaar or Draw at 1.16 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	70%	82%	@ 1.16
Fortuna Sittard or Draw	56%	41%	@ 2.32

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	83%	@ 1.13
Under 3.5	65%	58%	@ 1.62
Over 2.5	57%	63%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	43%	37%	@ 2.55
Over 3.5	35%	42%	@ 2.25
Under 1.5	20%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	60%	@ 1.54
BTTS No	40%	40%	@ 2.32

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fortuna Sittard +2	85%	–	@ 1.27
Fortuna Sittard +1.75	82%	68%	@ 1.40
Fortuna Sittard +1.5	78%	62%	@ 1.52
AZ Alkmaar +0.75	75%	85%	1.12
Fortuna Sittard +1.25	73%	58%	@ 1.66
AZ Alkmaar +0.5	70%	–	1.17
Fortuna Sittard +1	67%	52%	@ 1.84
AZ Alkmaar +0.25	64%	79%	1.20
Fortuna Sittard +0.75	61%	45%	@ 2.10
AZ Alkmaar 0	57%	76%	1.26
Fortuna Sittard +0.5	56%	41%	@ 2.31
AZ Alkmaar -0.25	51%	67%	1.43
Fortuna Sittard +0.25	49%	33%	@ 2.85
AZ Alkmaar -0.5	44%	59%	1.58
Fortuna Sittard 0	43%	24%	@ 3.90
AZ Alkmaar -0.75	39%	55%	1.75
Fortuna Sittard -0.25	36%	21%	@ 4.40
AZ Alkmaar -1	33%	48%	1.98
AZ Alkmaar -1.25	27%	42%	2.25
Fortuna Sittard -0.75	25%	15%	@ 6.40
AZ Alkmaar -1.5	22%	38%	2.45
AZ Alkmaar -1.75	18%	32%	2.94

📈 How the market moved

Fortuna Sittard 19%Draw 22%AZ Alkmaar 59%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model's main pick is Fortuna Sittard with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.

Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar.

What is the predicted score for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.30 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.