vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Lens vs Auxerre Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lens vs Auxerre in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.
Lens face Auxerre in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Lens won 2, Auxerre won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.8-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lens vs Auxerre with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 11.1% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lens vs Auxerre is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Auxerre with a +0.75 start at odds 2.23 (+14.9% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Lens and Auxerre. Wins shown from Lens’s perspective: Lens 2 · 1 drawn · Auxerre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Lens | 1 – 0 | Auxerre | W |
| 2025-10-04 | Auxerre | 1 – 2 | Lens | W |
| 2025-04-27 | Lens | 0 – 4 | Auxerre | L |
| 2024-12-14 | Auxerre | 2 – 2 | Lens | D |
📈 Recent form
Lens come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Boulogne. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Sunderland.
- WLens 1-0 Paris Saint GermainTrophée des Champions
- LLens 0-2 SunderlandFriendlies Clubs
- WLens 3-1 VillarrealComo Cup
- DLens 2-2 CharleroiFriendlies Clubs
- WLens 4-1 BoulogneFriendlies Clubs
Auxerre come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to St Maur Lusitanos. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Orleans.
- WWerder Bremen 0-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs
- DAuxerre 1-1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
- DSochaux 1-1 AuxerreFriendlies Clubs
- LAuxerre 1-2 OrleansFriendlies Clubs
- WAuxerre 5-2 St Maur LusitanosFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. AntonioSuspended (red card)
- S. BaidooKnee Injury
- N. CelikInjury
- J. ChavezThigh Injury
- J. GraditThigh Injury
- T. BairSuspended
- A. DiousseKnee Injury
- S. FofanaGroin Injury
- R. Labeau LascaryLoan agreement
- B. OkohKnee Injury
- M. SenayaInjury
- F. SierraltaInjury
- T. SiweThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lens at 54% to win and Auxerre at 20%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre Win | 20% | @ 5.20 | +6.3% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 4.00 | +2.9% |
| Lens Win | 54% | @ 1.59 | -14.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Auxerre or Draw at 2.30 (45% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre or Draw | 45% | @ 2.30 | +4.1% |
| Lens or Draw | 79% | @ 1.15 | -9.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 2.25 | +5.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | @ 1.50 | +3.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 4.33 | -0.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.20 | -7.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 1.62 | -13.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | @ 2.55 | -20.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 46% | @ 2.10 | -3.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | @ 1.65 | -10.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lens or Auxerre is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre 0 | 33% | @ 4.51 | +50.6% |
| Auxerre -0.25 | 27% | @ 5.25 | +43.9% |
| Auxerre -0.75 | 18% | @ 7.00 | +25.7% |
| Auxerre +0.25 | 39% | @ 3.15 | +23.9% |
| Auxerre -0.5 | 21% | @ 5.75 | +23.3% |
| Auxerre +0.75 | 51% | @ 2.23 | +14.9% |
| Auxerre +0.5 | 45% | @ 2.46 | +11.5% |
| Auxerre +1 | 58% | @ 1.93 | +11.0% |
| Auxerre +1.25 | 64% | @ 1.71 | +8.5% |
| Auxerre +1.5 | 70% | @ 1.54 | +7.6% |
| Auxerre +1.75 | 74% | @ 1.42 | +4.7% |
| Auxerre +2 | 78% | 1.26 | -1.1% |
| Lens +0.75 | 82% | 1.10 | -9.8% |
| Lens +0.5 | 79% | 1.14 | -10.4% |
| Lens +0.25 | 73% | 1.16 | -15.8% |
| Lens -0.5 | 55% | 1.51 | -17.1% |
| Lens -0.25 | 61% | 1.36 | -17.2% |
| Lens -0.75 | 49% | 1.67 | -18.8% |
| Lens -1 | 42% | 1.91 | -19.0% |
| Lens 0 | 67% | 1.21 | -19.4% |
| Lens -1.25 | 36% | 2.17 | -21.1% |
| Lens -1.75 | 26% | 2.90 | -24.4% |
| Lens -1.5 | 30% | 2.41 | -27.1% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 54% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 54% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 54% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.72 for the home side, 0.98 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our main pick is Auxerre with a +2 start at odds 1.26, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Auxerre with a +0.75 start at 2.23 (+14.9% value).
Who is the favourite for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Auxerre?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.77 for Lens and 1.04 for Auxerre. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lens and Auxerre play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.