vs
⚽ Serie A
Inter vs Monza Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Inter vs Monza in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Inter face Monza in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Inter won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Inter win the most likely result at 84%, projecting a 3.0-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Inter vs Monza with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Inter vs Monza is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates an Inter win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 84%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points no (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 3.5 goals at odds 2.60 (+33.9% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Inter and Monza. Wins shown from Inter’s perspective: Inter 3 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Inter | 3 – 2 | Monza | W |
| 2024-09-15 | Monza | 1 – 1 | Inter | D |
| 2024-01-13 | Monza | 1 – 5 | Inter | W |
| 2023-08-19 | Inter | 2 – 0 | Monza | W |
📈 Recent form
Inter come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Alianza. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WInter 1-0 Real BetisFriendlies Clubs
- WMunicipal Limeño 0-1 InterPrimera Division
- WInter 2-0 AlianzaPrimera Division
- WJuventus 1-2 InterFriendlies Clubs
- DAC Milan 1-1 InterFriendlies Clubs
Monza come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Avellino. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Aris Thessalonikis.
- WMonza 3-0 AvellinoCoppa Italia
- DMonza 3-3 PadovaFriendlies Clubs
- LMonza 1-3 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs
- WGalatasaray 0-2 MonzaFriendlies Clubs
- WMonza 4-3 PRO VercelliFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- H. MkhitaryanSuspended
- E. AkinsanmiroMuscle Injury
- P. CiurriaNot in squad
- L. ColomboInjury
- D. MotaSuspended
- M. PessinaKnee Injury
- D. ThiamSuspended (cards)
- I. ToureKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Inter at 84% to win and Monza at 6%, with the draw at 11%. Our model makes an Inter win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Win | 84% | @ 1.22 | +1.8% |
| Monza Win | 6% | @ 15.00 | -10.8% |
| Draw | 11% | @ 5.50 | -41.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Inter or Draw at 1.03 (94% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter or Draw | 94% | @ 1.03 | -3.4% |
| Monza or Draw | 18% | @ 4.00 | -28.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.0-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 52% | @ 2.60 | +33.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | @ 1.65 | +19.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | @ 1.20 | +6.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 48% | @ 1.48 | -28.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | @ 2.20 | -38.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 11% | @ 4.33 | -51.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 49% | @ 2.30 | +13.0% |
| BTTS No | 51% | @ 1.57 | -20.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Inter or Monza is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter -2 | 51% | @ 2.05 | +5.3% |
| Inter -1.75 | 57% | @ 1.78 | +1.3% |
| Inter -1.5 | 62% | @ 1.62 | +1.0% |
| Inter -0.5 | 82% | 1.20 | -1.9% |
| Inter -1.25 | 67% | 1.44 | -3.3% |
| Inter -0.25 | 85% | 1.13 | -3.9% |
| Inter -0.75 | 77% | 1.24 | -4.7% |
| Inter -1 | 72% | 1.27 | -7.9% |
| Monza +1.25 | 33% | 2.79 | -8.8% |
| Monza +1.75 | 43% | 2.08 | -10.2% |
| Monza +0.25 | 15% | 5.90 | -11.6% |
| Monza +2 | 49% | 1.78 | -13.5% |
| Monza +1.5 | 38% | 2.25 | -15.5% |
| Monza +0.5 | 18% | 4.33 | -22.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 75% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 88% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 85% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 2.81 for the home side, 0.60 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 3-0 (11%), 4-0 (9%), 2-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Inter vs Monza?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 72% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 3.5 goals at 2.60 (+33.9% value).
Who is the favourite for Inter vs Monza?
Our model makes an Inter win the most likely result at 84%. It projects an expected 3.0-0.7 scoreline for Inter vs Monza.
What is the predicted score for Inter vs Monza?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-0, based on expected goals of 3.01 for Inter and 0.74 for Monza. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Inter and Monza play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.