vs
⚽ Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen face Excelsior in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 3, Excelsior won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.5-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points yes (71%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Excelsior with a +0.75 start at odds 2.38 (+23.5% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior. Wins shown from NEC Nijmegen’s perspective: NEC Nijmegen 3 · Excelsior 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Excelsior | 0 – 2 | NEC Nijmegen | W |
| 2025-08-09 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 – 0 | Excelsior | W |
| 2024-05-06 | Excelsior | 0 – 3 | NEC Nijmegen | W |
| 2023-08-13 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 – 4 | Excelsior | L |
📈 Recent form
NEC Nijmegen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Willem II. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Bodo/Glimt.
- LNEC Nijmegen 1-3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
- WWillem II 1-4 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Champions League
- LNEC Nijmegen 1-2 TelstarEredivisie
- DOlympiakos Piraeus 0-0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Champions League
Excelsior come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- LExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WCambuur 0-4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WDe Graafschap 1-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- WHeracles 3-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
- WNAC Breda 1-3 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices NEC Nijmegen at 54% to win and Excelsior at 22%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Win | 22% | @ 6.20 | +34.5% |
| Draw | 24% | @ 5.10 | +23.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen Win | 54% | @ 1.40 | -24.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Excelsior or Draw at 2.85 (46% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior or Draw | 46% | @ 2.85 | +30.8% |
| NEC Nijmegen or Draw | 78% | @ 1.11 | -13.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 75% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 56% | @ 2.10 | +16.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | @ 1.42 | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | @ 1.12 | +1.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 44% | @ 1.70 | -24.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | @ 2.80 | -31.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | @ 5.75 | -45.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | @ 1.60 | +13.8% |
| BTTS No | 29% | @ 2.20 | -36.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when NEC Nijmegen or Excelsior is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior -0.25 | 28% | @ 5.75 | +60.3% |
| Excelsior +0.25 | 40% | @ 3.32 | +32.4% |
| Excelsior -0.5 | 22% | @ 6.00 | +31.3% |
| Excelsior +0.75 | 52% | @ 2.38 | +23.5% |
| Excelsior +1 | 58% | @ 2.10 | +22.0% |
| Excelsior +0.5 | 46% | @ 2.65 | +21.6% |
| Excelsior +1.5 | 70% | @ 1.65 | +15.8% |
| Excelsior +1.25 | 64% | @ 1.79 | +14.9% |
| Excelsior +1.75 | 74% | @ 1.50 | +11.3% |
| Excelsior +2 | 79% | @ 1.35 | +6.1% |
| NEC Nijmegen +0.5 | 78% | 1.12 | -12.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen +0.25 | 72% | 1.14 | -17.8% |
| NEC Nijmegen -0.5 | 54% | 1.48 | -19.9% |
| NEC Nijmegen -0.25 | 60% | 1.33 | -20.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen 0 | 66% | 1.20 | -21.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen -0.75 | 48% | 1.57 | -24.6% |
| NEC Nijmegen -1.25 | 36% | 2.04 | -27.1% |
| NEC Nijmegen -1 | 42% | 1.73 | -27.4% |
| NEC Nijmegen -2 | 21% | 3.20 | -31.6% |
| NEC Nijmegen -1.75 | 26% | 2.56 | -34.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen -1.5 | 30% | 2.17 | -35.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 60% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 56% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 51% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.70 for the home side, 0.99 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Excelsior with a +0.75 start at 2.38 (+23.5% value).
Who is the favourite for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.5 scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior.
What is the predicted score for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.46 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.49 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.