⚽ Serie A
Genoa vs Napoli Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Genoa 0-2 Napoli
Genoa vs Napoli finished 0-2. Napoli won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Genoa face Napoli in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Genoa vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Napoli with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Genoa and Napoli. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 1 drawn · Napoli 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Genoa | 0 – 2 | Napoli | L |
| 2026-02-07 | Genoa | 2 – 3 | Napoli | L |
| 2025-10-05 | Napoli | 2 – 1 | Genoa | L |
| 2025-05-11 | Napoli | 2 – 2 | Genoa | D |
| 2024-12-21 | Genoa | 1 – 2 | Napoli | L |
📈 Recent form
Genoa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sudtirol. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Parma.
- LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
- WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
- DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
- LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
- LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A
Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
- WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
- LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. HavelThigh Injury
- H. J. TraoreMuscle Injury
- L. VenturinoKnee Injury
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- M. FolorunshoNot in squad
- L. MarianucciKnee Injury
- P. MazzocchiKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Genoa at 18% to win and Napoli at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli Win | 53% | 51% | @ 1.84 |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Genoa Win | 18% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.17 (80% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 80% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Genoa or Draw | 44% | 49% | @ 1.92 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 76% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 58% | @ 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 22% | @ 4.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Genoa or Napoli is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli +0.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Napoli +0.5 | 80% | – | 1.20 |
| Genoa +2 | 77% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Napoli +0.25 | 74% | – | 1.26 |
| Genoa +1.75 | 73% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Genoa +1.5 | 68% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Napoli 0 | 68% | 71% | 1.33 |
| Genoa +1.25 | 62% | 71% | 1.35 |
| Napoli -0.25 | 62% | 59% | @ 1.63 |
| Napoli -0.5 | 56% | 51% | @ 1.87 |
| Genoa +1 | 56% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Genoa +0.75 | 50% | 57% | 1.69 |
| Napoli -0.75 | 50% | 43% | @ 2.21 |
| Genoa +0.5 | 44% | 49% | 1.94 |
| Napoli -1 | 44% | 34% | @ 2.77 |
| Genoa +0.25 | 38% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Napoli -1.25 | 38% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Genoa 0 | 32% | 29% | @ 3.26 |
| Napoli -1.5 | 32% | 27% | @ 3.49 |
| Napoli -1.75 | 27% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Napoli -2 | 23% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Genoa -0.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model's main pick is Napoli with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.
Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Genoa and 1.53 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Genoa and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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