vs
⚽ Serie A
Genoa vs Napoli Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Genoa vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Genoa face Napoli in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Napoli won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Genoa vs Napoli with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Genoa vs Napoli is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Napoli with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Napoli to win by 1+ goals at odds 2.21 (+10.7% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Genoa and Napoli. Wins shown from Genoa’s perspective: 2 drawn · Napoli 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Genoa | 2 – 3 | Napoli | L |
| 2025-10-05 | Napoli | 2 – 1 | Genoa | L |
| 2025-05-11 | Napoli | 2 – 2 | Genoa | D |
| 2024-12-21 | Genoa | 1 – 2 | Napoli | L |
| 2024-02-17 | Napoli | 1 – 1 | Genoa | D |
📈 Recent form
Genoa come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 14. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Ascoli. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
- WGenoa 4-1 AscoliCoppa Italia
- LGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
- LBournemouth 10-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
- WLeicester 0-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
- DGenoa 2-2 Vicenza VirtusFriendlies Clubs
Napoli come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at home to Aris Thessalonikis. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Arezzo.
- WNapoli 6-2 Aris ThessalonikisFriendlies Clubs
- DNapoli 1-1 Celta VigoFriendlies Clubs
- WNapoli 2-1 OsasunaFriendlies Clubs
- WNapoli 2-0 CarrareseFriendlies Clubs
- LNapoli 1-3 ArezzoFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- E. HavelThigh Injury
- L. VenturinoKnee Injury
- H. J. TraoreMuscle Injury
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- M. FolorunshoNot in squad
- L. MarianucciKnee Injury
- P. MazzocchiKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Genoa at 18% to win and Napoli at 53%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.40 | -0.3% |
| Napoli Win | 53% | @ 1.85 | -1.6% |
| Genoa Win | 18% | @ 4.30 | -24.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.20 (80% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli or Draw | 80% | @ 1.20 | -4.5% |
| Genoa or Draw | 44% | @ 1.91 | -16.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 24% | @ 4.20 | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | @ 1.40 | -1.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | @ 2.20 | -1.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 76% | @ 1.22 | -6.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | @ 1.65 | -9.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 29% | @ 2.90 | -14.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 48% | @ 2.00 | -4.8% |
| BTTS No | 52% | @ 1.75 | -8.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Genoa or Napoli is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli -2 | 23% | @ 7.00 | +60.4% |
| Napoli -1.25 | 38% | @ 3.25 | +22.7% |
| Napoli -1.75 | 27% | @ 4.50 | +22.5% |
| Napoli -1 | 44% | @ 2.77 | +21.7% |
| Napoli -0.75 | 50% | @ 2.21 | +10.7% |
| Napoli -1.5 | 32% | @ 3.49 | +10.2% |
| Napoli -0.5 | 56% | @ 1.87 | +4.8% |
| Genoa 0 | 32% | @ 3.26 | +4.7% |
| Napoli -0.25 | 62% | @ 1.63 | +1.1% |
| Genoa -0.75 | 17% | 5.75 | -2.0% |
| Napoli +0.5 | 80% | 1.20 | -4.2% |
| Napoli +0.75 | 83% | 1.14 | -5.4% |
| Napoli +0.25 | 74% | 1.26 | -6.7% |
| Napoli 0 | 68% | 1.33 | -9.5% |
| Genoa +1.5 | 68% | 1.30 | -11.2% |
| Genoa +0.25 | 38% | 2.31 | -12.1% |
| Genoa +1.75 | 73% | 1.19 | -13.4% |
| Genoa +0.5 | 44% | 1.94 | -15.0% |
| Genoa +2 | 77% | 1.10 | -15.2% |
| Genoa +0.75 | 50% | 1.69 | -15.7% |
| Genoa +1.25 | 62% | 1.35 | -15.9% |
| Genoa +1 | 56% | 1.45 | -18.6% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 48% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 54% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 55% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 0.96 for the home side, 1.75 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our main pick is Napoli with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Napoli to win by 1+ goals at 2.21 (+10.7% value).
Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.94 for Genoa and 1.53 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Genoa and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.