Sat 22 Aug0-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Parma vs Cagliari Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Parma vs Cagliari in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Parma 0-1 Cagliari

Parma vs Cagliari finished 0-1. Cagliari won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Parma face Cagliari in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Parma win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Parma vs Cagliari with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.47

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.20 – 1.09 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	11.0%	6.0%	2.2%	0.6%
1	12.2%	13.2%	7.2%	2.6%	0.7%
2	7.3%	7.9%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
3	2.9%	3.2%	1.7%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.9%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Parma winDrawCagliari win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Parma vs Cagliari comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.47, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Parma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Parma 36%Draw 31%Cagliari 32%

36%31%32%

36%

Parma Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Parma and Cagliari. Wins shown from Parma’s perspective: 1 drawn · Cagliari 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Parma	0 – 1	Cagliari	L
2026-02-27	Parma	1 – 1	Cagliari	D
2025-09-13	Cagliari	2 – 0	Parma	L
2025-02-09	Cagliari	2 – 1	Parma	L
2024-09-30	Parma	2 – 3	Cagliari	L

📈 Recent form

Parma

Parma come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Genoa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Como.

WParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
LComo 2-1 ParmaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
LParma 0-2 CremoneseCoppa Italia
LJuventus 2-0 ParmaSerie A

Cagliari

Cagliari come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Udinese. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Hellas Verona.

WUdinese 0-1 CagliariSerie A
WAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
WCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LCagliari 1-2 Hellas VeronaCoppa Italia
LCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Parma

S. BritschgiSuspended (cards)
A. JoujouNot in squad
H. Nicolussi CavigliaGroin Injury

Cagliari

A. AlbarracinNot in squad
S. EspositoInjury
R. IdrissiKnee Injury
Y. TrepyInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Parma at 36% to win and Cagliari at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Parma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Parma Win	36%	39%	@ 2.38
Cagliari Win	32%	29%	@ 3.15
Draw	31%	31%	@ 2.95

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Parma or Draw at 1.34 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Parma or Draw	65%	71%	@ 1.34
Cagliari or Draw	61%	61%	@ 1.55

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	80%	@ 1.17
Over 1.5	67%	64%	@ 1.47
Under 2.5	60%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	40%	38%	@ 2.48
Under 1.5	33%	36%	@ 2.65
Over 3.5	20%	20%	@ 4.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	54%	@ 1.75
BTTS Yes	46%	46%	@ 2.02

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Parma or Cagliari is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Cagliari +1.75	85%	86%	1.10
Parma +1.5	85%	86%	1.09
Cagliari +1.5	82%	81%	1.16
Parma +1.25	80%	86%	1.10
Cagliari +1.25	77%	–	1.19
Parma +1	75%	85%	1.13
Cagliari +1	72%	–	1.23
Parma +0.75	70%	77%	1.24
Cagliari +0.75	67%	68%	1.40
Parma +0.5	65%	70%	1.36
Cagliari +0.5	61%	61%	1.56
Parma +0.25	58%	65%	1.48
Cagliari +0.25	55%	54%	1.79
Parma 0	52%	56%	1.70
Cagliari 0	48%	44%	@ 2.16
Parma -0.25	45%	46%	2.10
Cagliari -0.25	42%	35%	@ 2.72
Parma -0.5	39%	39%	2.40
Cagliari -0.5	35%	30%	@ 3.12
Parma -0.75	33%	32%	@ 3.00
Cagliari -0.75	30%	23%	@ 4.13
Cagliari -1	25%	15%	@ 6.36
Cagliari -1.25	20%	14%	@ 6.80
Parma -1.5	18%	19%	5.08
Cagliari -1.5	15%	14%	@ 6.78
Parma -1.75	15%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Parma 39%Draw 32%Cagliari 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.47, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model makes a Parma win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.1 scoreline for Parma vs Cagliari.

What is the predicted score for Parma vs Cagliari?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Parma and 1.09 for Cagliari. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Parma and Cagliari play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.