vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Nice vs Lorient Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Nice vs Lorient in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Nice face Lorient in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Nice won 1, Lorient won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nice win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Nice vs Lorient with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Nice vs Lorient is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Nice win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Lorient with a +0.25 start at odds 2.01 (+5.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Nice and Lorient. Wins shown from Nice’s perspective: Nice 1 · 2 drawn · Lorient 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Nice | 3 – 3 | Lorient | D |
| 2025-11-30 | Lorient | 3 – 1 | Nice | L |
| 2024-04-19 | Nice | 3 – 0 | Lorient | W |
| 2023-08-20 | Lorient | 1 – 1 | Nice | D |
📈 Recent form
Nice come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Nimes. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Juventus.
- DHull City 0-0 NiceFriendlies Clubs
- LJuventus 2-0 NiceFriendlies Clubs
- WNice 4-0 NimesFriendlies Clubs
- WNice 4-1 Saint EtienneLigue 1
- DSaint Etienne 0-0 NiceLigue 1
Lorient come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to UNFP. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at SV Elversberg.
- LSV Elversberg 4-1 LorientFriendlies Clubs
- LAngers 2-1 LorientFriendlies Clubs
- WLorient 5-1 UNFPFriendlies Clubs
- WGuingamp 0-2 LorientFriendlies Clubs
- WLorient 1-0 NantesFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. AbdelmonemAnkle Injury
- L. AbergelKnee Injury
- M. BombitoLeg Injury
- N. NgoumouMuscle Injury
- M. BambaLacking Match Fitness
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Nice at 40% to win and Lorient at 31%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Nice win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient Win | 31% | @ 3.36 | +3.7% |
| Draw | 30% | @ 3.47 | +3.0% |
| Nice Win | 40% | @ 2.11 | -16.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lorient or Draw at 1.72 (59% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient or Draw | 59% | @ 1.72 | +1.2% |
| Nice or Draw | 67% | @ 1.31 | -11.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 54% | @ 1.86 | +1.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 3.12 | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | @ 1.26 | -1.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.37 | -7.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | @ 1.97 | -10.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | @ 3.81 | -15.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 44% | @ 2.13 | -5.9% |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | @ 1.66 | -7.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Nice or Lorient is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient -1 | 23% | @ 6.25 | +44.4% |
| Lorient -1.25 | 18% | @ 6.80 | +24.9% |
| Lorient -0.75 | 28% | @ 4.29 | +19.5% |
| Lorient -0.25 | 39% | @ 2.92 | +14.4% |
| Lorient 0 | 46% | @ 2.45 | +11.9% |
| Lorient -0.5 | 33% | @ 3.28 | +6.8% |
| Lorient +0.25 | 52% | @ 2.01 | +5.1% |
| Lorient +0.5 | 59% | @ 1.73 | +1.7% |
| Lorient +1.5 | 81% | @ 1.24 | +0.1% |
| Lorient +0.75 | 64% | 1.55 | +0.0% |
| Lorient +1.75 | 84% | 1.17 | -2.0% |
| Lorient +1.25 | 75% | 1.30 | -2.2% |
| Nice -1 | 30% | 3.21 | -2.8% |
| Lorient -1.5 | 14% | 7.00 | -4.6% |
| Nice +1.5 | 86% | 1.10 | -5.0% |
| Lorient +1 | 70% | 1.35 | -5.4% |
| Nice +1.25 | 82% | 1.10 | -10.2% |
| Nice -1.25 | 25% | 3.62 | -10.5% |
| Nice -0.25 | 48% | 1.87 | -10.8% |
| Nice +0.5 | 67% | 1.32 | -11.0% |
| Nice +0.75 | 72% | 1.23 | -11.3% |
| Nice -0.75 | 36% | 2.48 | -11.7% |
| Nice +0.25 | 61% | 1.42 | -13.9% |
| Nice +1 | 77% | 1.12 | -13.9% |
| Nice -0.5 | 41% | 2.07 | -14.8% |
| Nice 0 | 54% | 1.54 | -16.3% |
| Nice -1.75 | 16% | 5.00 | -18.7% |
| Nice -1.5 | 19% | 3.70 | -28.6% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 57% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 43% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 36% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.39 for the home side, 1.21 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nice vs Lorient?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.26, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Lorient with a +0.25 start at 2.01 (+5.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Nice vs Lorient?
Our model makes a Nice win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for Nice vs Lorient.
What is the predicted score for Nice vs Lorient?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Nice and 1.29 for Lorient. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Nice and Lorient play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.