vs
⚽ Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Heerenveen face PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, PEC Zwolle won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Heerenveen win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 2.3-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is PEC Zwolle with a +2 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Heerenveen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (66%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Heerenveen win at odds 1.62 (+1.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle. Wins shown from Heerenveen’s perspective: Heerenveen 2 · 2 drawn · PEC Zwolle 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Heerenveen | 4 – 2 | PEC Zwolle | W |
| 2025-11-28 | PEC Zwolle | 2 – 1 | Heerenveen | L |
| 2025-02-16 | PEC Zwolle | 1 – 1 | Heerenveen | D |
| 2024-10-06 | Heerenveen | 1 – 1 | PEC Zwolle | D |
| 2024-03-03 | Heerenveen | 2 – 0 | PEC Zwolle | W |
📈 Recent form
Heerenveen come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Twente. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DAjax 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 1-0 TwenteEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 3-2 Volos NFCFriendlies Clubs
- DHeerenveen 4-4 OH LeuvenFriendlies Clubs
- WClub Brugge KV 2-3 HeerenveenFriendlies Clubs
PEC Zwolle come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Cercle Brugge. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Twente.
- LTwente 3-1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LPEC Zwolle 0-2 AjaxEredivisie
- LHannover 96 3-0 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
- LPEC Zwolle 2-3 AEK Athens FCFriendlies Clubs
- WPEC Zwolle 3-2 Cercle BruggeFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. EgbringInjury
- Y. NamliKnee Injury
- T. SommerIllness
- E. SorensenInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Heerenveen at 63% to win and PEC Zwolle at 17%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Heerenveen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen Win | 63% | @ 1.62 | +1.6% |
| Draw | 21% | @ 4.40 | -8.8% |
| PEC Zwolle Win | 17% | @ 4.45 | -26.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heerenveen or Draw at 1.20 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen or Draw | 84% | @ 1.20 | +0.5% |
| PEC Zwolle or Draw | 38% | @ 2.25 | -15.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 48% | @ 2.10 | +1.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | @ 1.42 | -1.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | @ 1.12 | -2.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | @ 1.70 | -12.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | @ 2.80 | -14.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | @ 5.75 | -27.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | @ 1.48 | -1.9% |
| BTTS No | 34% | @ 2.45 | -17.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Heerenveen or PEC Zwolle is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle 0 | 27% | @ 4.01 | +8.2% |
| Heerenveen -2 | 28% | @ 3.70 | +3.4% |
| Heerenveen -0.5 | 62% | 1.57 | -2.0% |
| PEC Zwolle -0.25 | 22% | 4.50 | -2.6% |
| Heerenveen +0.5 | 84% | 1.16 | -2.9% |
| Heerenveen -1 | 50% | 1.94 | -3.2% |
| Heerenveen -0.75 | 56% | 1.72 | -3.5% |
| PEC Zwolle +1.5 | 62% | 1.54 | -4.0% |
| Heerenveen -1.25 | 44% | 2.19 | -4.0% |
| Heerenveen +0.75 | 86% | 1.11 | -4.0% |
| Heerenveen -0.25 | 68% | 1.41 | -4.6% |
| Heerenveen -1.75 | 33% | 2.91 | -4.7% |
| PEC Zwolle +1.25 | 56% | 1.69 | -4.9% |
| PEC Zwolle +1.75 | 67% | 1.41 | -5.2% |
| PEC Zwolle +0.75 | 44% | 2.15 | -5.9% |
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 32% | 2.90 | -6.0% |
| PEC Zwolle +1 | 50% | 1.87 | -6.2% |
| Heerenveen +0.25 | 78% | 1.19 | -6.8% |
| PEC Zwolle +2 | 72% | 1.27 | -8.1% |
| Heerenveen 0 | 73% | 1.25 | -9.1% |
| Heerenveen -1.5 | 38% | 2.41 | -9.6% |
| PEC Zwolle -0.75 | 14% | 6.60 | -10.8% |
| PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 38% | 2.34 | -11.8% |
| PEC Zwolle -0.5 | 16% | 5.25 | -14.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 57% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 59% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 66% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.94 for the home side, 0.87 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our main pick is PEC Zwolle with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with 72% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Heerenveen win at 1.62 (+1.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model makes a Heerenveen win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 2.3-1.3 scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.26 for Heerenveen and 1.33 for PEC Zwolle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.