⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FC Lugano face Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.4-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

84%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.6%	7.1%	7.0%	4.6%	2.3%
1	4.8%	9.6%	9.5%	6.3%	3.1%
2	3.3%	6.5%	6.4%	4.2%	2.1%
3	1.5%	2.9%	2.9%	1.9%	0.9%
4	0.5%	1.0%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

FC Lugano winDrawMaccabi Tel Aviv win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw at odds 1.77 (+32.8% model value).

Best value

Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw at odds 1.77, 75% model probability, +32.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

FC Lugano 28%Draw 19%Maccabi Tel Aviv 53%

28%19%53%

53%

Maccabi Tel Aviv Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

+32.8%

Best value: Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw

📈 Recent form

FC Lugano

FC Lugano come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 23 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 10-1 at Vedeggio. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVedeggio 1-10 FC LuganoSchweizer Cup
DNSI Runavik 2-2 FC LuganoUEFA Europa Conference
WFC Lugano 5-0 FC ZurichSuper League
WFC Lugano 2-0 NSI RunavikUEFA Europa Conference
WGrasshoppers 1-4 FC LuganoSuper League

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Sheriff Tiraspol. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to CSKA Sofia.

WMaccabi Netanya 0-1 Maccabi Tel AvivToto Cup Ligat Al
WCSKA Sofia 1-3 Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Europa League
LMaccabi Tel Aviv 0-3 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
WMaccabi Tel Aviv 1-0 Sheriff TiraspolUEFA Europa League
WSheriff Tiraspol 0-5 Maccabi Tel AvivUEFA Europa League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FC Lugano at 28% to win and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Maccabi Tel Aviv Win	53%	@ 3.50	+86.0%
Draw	19%	@ 3.50	-34.2%
FC Lugano Win	28%	@ 2.00	-43.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw at 1.77 (75% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw	75%	@ 1.77	+32.8%
FC Lugano or Draw	50%	@ 1.28	-36.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	43%	@ 3.25	+38.5%
Over 2.5	65%	@ 1.90	+22.8%
Over 1.5	84%	@ 1.28	+8.2%
Under 3.5	57%	@ 1.33	-23.7%
Under 2.5	35%	@ 1.85	-34.6%
Under 1.5	16%	@ 3.50	-45.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	62%	@ 1.70	+6.2%
BTTS No	38%	@ 2.00	-25.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	57%
Dixon-Coles	Away	48%
GradientBoosting	Away	54%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.05 for the home side, 1.60 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Maccabi Tel Aviv or Draw at 1.77 (+32.8% value).

Who is the favourite for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Our model makes a Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.0 scoreline for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv.

What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for FC Lugano and 1.98 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FC Lugano and Maccabi Tel Aviv play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.