⚽ Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC finished 1-5. Minnesota United FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
San Jose Earthquakes face Minnesota United FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, Minnesota United FC won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Minnesota United FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (65%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 1 · 1 drawn · Minnesota United FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 5 | Minnesota United FC | L |
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes | 4 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | W |
| 2024-09-01 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 2 | Minnesota United FC | L |
| 2024-07-21 | Minnesota United FC | 2 – 0 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2023-10-01 | Minnesota United FC | 1 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | D |
📈 Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Houston Dynamo.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Minnesota United FC come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 17. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Los Angeles Galaxy.
- LMinnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- LSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LMinnesota United FC 1-2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DMinnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. VieiraLower-Body Injury
- K. ChandlerKnee Injury
- B. HlongwaneKnee Injury
- P. StroudMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 33% to win and Minnesota United FC at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC Win | 41% | 32% | @ 2.90 |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 33% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Minnesota United FC or Draw at 1.66 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC or Draw | 67% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 59% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 57% | @ 1.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 16% | @ 5.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 65% | @ 1.42 |
| BTTS No | 35% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Jose Earthquakes or Minnesota United FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC +2 | 91% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.75 | 89% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.5 | 86% | – | @ 1.23 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.75 | 84% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Minnesota United FC +1.25 | 82% | 75% | @ 1.27 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 81% | 82% | 1.14 |
| Minnesota United FC +1 | 77% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 75% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.75 | 72% | 65% | @ 1.48 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 70% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.5 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.63 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 64% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Minnesota United FC +0.25 | 61% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 59% | 66% | 1.42 |
| Minnesota United FC 0 | 54% | 45% | @ 2.12 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 52% | 61% | 1.56 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.25 | 48% | 39% | @ 2.44 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 46% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.5 | 41% | 34% | @ 2.77 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 39% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Minnesota United FC -0.75 | 36% | 28% | @ 3.38 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 33% | 42% | 2.24 |
| Minnesota United FC -1 | 30% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 28% | 35% | 2.72 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.25 | 25% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1 | 23% | 27% | 3.48 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.5 | 19% | 18% | 5.12 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 18% | 25% | 3.81 |
| Minnesota United FC -1.75 | 16% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.75 | 11% | 17% | 5.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -2 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our model's main pick is Minnesota United FC with a +1.25 start at odds 1.27, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
Our model makes a Minnesota United FC win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.71 for Minnesota United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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