⚽ Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

PSV Eindhoven face Groningen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 78%, projecting a 3.0-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven Win @ 1.38

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.98 – 1.12 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%
1	4.9%	5.5%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%
2	7.4%	8.2%	4.6%	1.7%	0.5%
3	7.3%	8.2%	4.6%	1.7%	0.5%
4	5.4%	6.1%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

PSV Eindhoven winDrawGroningen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 78%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

Best value

PSV Eindhoven Win at odds 1.38, 78% model probability, +7.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

PSV Eindhoven 78%Draw 12%Groningen 10%

78%12%10%

78%

PSV Eindhoven Win

78%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

+7.6%

Best value: PSV Eindhoven Win

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Groningen. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-08	Groningen	1 – 2	PSV Eindhoven	W
2025-08-23	PSV Eindhoven	4 – 2	Groningen	W
2025-04-05	Groningen	1 – 3	PSV Eindhoven	W
2024-11-23	PSV Eindhoven	5 – 0	Groningen	W

📈 Recent form

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to FC Eindhoven. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to AZ Alkmaar.

WExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
DPSV Eindhoven 2-2 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LPSV Eindhoven 0-4 AZ AlkmaarSuper Cup
WPSV Eindhoven 3-0 FC EindhovenFriendlies Clubs
LPSV Eindhoven 1-3 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs

Groningen

Groningen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at ADO Den Haag. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at home to FC Volendam.

WADO Den Haag 1-4 GroningenEredivisie
WGroningen 2-1 UtrechtEredivisie
WGroningen 1-0 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
DGroningen 0-0 Volos NFCFriendlies Clubs
LGroningen 0-4 FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

PSV Eindhoven

J. SchoutenKnee Injury

Groningen

M. JengLeg Injury
T. MerceraInjury
R. MetuInjury
O. ZawadaKnock
M. RenteInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 78% to win and Groningen at 10%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
PSV Eindhoven Win	78%	@ 1.38	+7.6%
Draw	12%	@ 5.40	-33.6%
Groningen Win	10%	@ 6.25	-39.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.11 (91% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
PSV Eindhoven or Draw	91%	@ 1.11	+1.4%
Groningen or Draw	24%	@ 2.90	-30.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.0-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	58%	@ 1.83	+7.0%
Over 2.5	78%	@ 1.30	+0.8%
Over 1.5	91%	@ 1.09	-0.3%
Under 3.5	42%	@ 1.95	-19.0%
Under 2.5	22%	@ 3.35	-24.7%
Under 1.5	9%	@ 7.00	-40.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	64%	@ 1.48	-5.8%
BTTS No	36%	@ 2.45	-10.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	80%
Dixon-Coles	Home	68%
GradientBoosting	Home	80%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 2.46 for the home side, 0.68 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

Our main pick is a PSV Eindhoven win at odds 1.38, with 78% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 78%. It projects an expected 3.0-1.1 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen.

What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.98 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.12 for Groningen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do PSV Eindhoven and Groningen play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.