⚽ Ligue 1

Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Le Havre vs Monaco in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Le Havre face Monaco in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:15 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.2-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Le Havre vs Monaco with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Monaco or Draw @ 1.28

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.25 – 1.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.4%	8.2%	7.7%	4.8%	2.3%
1	5.5%	10.3%	9.7%	6.1%	2.8%
2	3.4%	6.4%	6.0%	3.8%	1.8%
3	1.4%	2.7%	2.5%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Le Havre winDrawMonaco win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Le Havre vs Monaco is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Monaco or Draw at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Monaco win at odds 1.93 (+2.3% model value).

Best value

Monaco Win at odds 1.93, 53% model probability, +2.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Le Havre 21%Draw 26%Monaco 53%

21%26%53%

53%

Monaco Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS yes

+2.3%

Best value: Monaco Win

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Le Havre and Monaco. Wins shown from Le Havre’s perspective: 3 drawn · Monaco 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-24	Le Havre	0 – 0	Monaco	D
2025-08-16	Monaco	3 – 1	Le Havre	L
2025-04-26	Le Havre	1 – 1	Monaco	D
2024-09-22	Monaco	3 – 1	Le Havre	L
2024-02-04	Monaco	1 – 1	Le Havre	D

📈 Recent form

Le Havre

Le Havre come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Lorient. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Ipswich.

WLe Mans 0-1 Le HavreFriendlies Clubs
LIpswich 1-0 Le HavreFriendlies Clubs
DLe Havre 1-1 LavalFriendlies Clubs
LLe Havre 1-2 AmiensFriendlies Clubs
WLorient 0-2 Le HavreLigue 1

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Gornik Zabrze. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Coventry.

WGornik Zabrze 2-3 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference
LCoventry 2-0 MonacoFriendlies Clubs
WLiverpool 2-3 MonacoFriendlies Clubs
WMonaco 1-0 GetafeFriendlies Clubs
DMonaco 2-2 Cercle BruggeFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Le Havre

F. MambimbiInjury
A. ToureKnee Injury
S. ZagadouInjury

Monaco

M. AblineFoot Injury
F. BalogunInjury
E. DiopInjury
A. FatiCalf Injury
C. MawissaSuspended (cards)
M. SalisuKnee Injury
J. TezeMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Le Havre at 21% to win and Monaco at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Monaco Win	53%	@ 1.93	+2.3%
Draw	26%	@ 3.75	-2.2%
Le Havre Win	21%	@ 3.50	-26.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.28 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Monaco or Draw	78%	@ 1.28	-0.1%
Le Havre or Draw	46%	@ 1.83	-15.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.18	-3.3%
Under 3.5	62%	@ 1.55	-4.2%
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.57	-5.0%
Under 2.5	40%	@ 2.35	-7.2%
Over 3.5	38%	@ 2.40	-8.4%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 4.75	-14.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	39%	@ 2.40	-5.8%
BTTS Yes	61%	@ 1.50	-8.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	52%
Dixon-Coles	Away	52%
GradientBoosting	Away	54%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 0.99 for the home side, 1.70 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our main pick is Monaco or Draw at odds 1.28, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Monaco win at 1.93 (+2.3% value).

Who is the favourite for Le Havre vs Monaco?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.9 scoreline for Le Havre vs Monaco.

What is the predicted score for Le Havre vs Monaco?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.25 for Le Havre and 1.88 for Monaco. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Le Havre and Monaco play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 15:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.