Sun 23 Aug2-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Sassuolo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo

Atalanta vs Sassuolo finished 2-1. Atalanta won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Atalanta face Sassuolo in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 3, Sassuolo won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 55%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Sassuolo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Sassuolo +2 @ 1.27

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.88 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	5.6%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.7%	10.6%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.0%	9.9%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.3%	6.2%	3.1%	1.0%	0.3%
4	3.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Atalanta winDrawSassuolo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Sassuolo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Sassuolo with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 55%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 55%Draw 28%Sassuolo 18%

55%28%18%

55%

Atalanta Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Sassuolo. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 3 · Sassuolo 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	Atalanta	2 – 1	Sassuolo	W
2026-03-01	Sassuolo	2 – 1	Atalanta	L
2025-11-09	Atalanta	0 – 3	Sassuolo	L
2024-02-17	Atalanta	3 – 0	Sassuolo	W
2023-08-20	Sassuolo	0 – 2	Atalanta	W

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Juventus.

LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
LAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference

Sassuolo

Sassuolo come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Juventus. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Monza.

LMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
WSassuolo 3-2 JuventusSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WSassuolo 2-1 TorinoSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

H. AhanorMuscle Injury
I. HienMuscle Injury
T. KristensenAnkle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury

Sassuolo

D. BerardiAnkle Injury
D. BolocaMuscle Injury
F. CandeKnee Injury
I. KoneBroken Leg
Y. PazKnee Injury
E. PieragnoloKnee Injury
A. PinamontiInjury
S. WalukiewiczMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 55% to win and Sassuolo at 18%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	55%	61%	@ 1.53
Draw	28%	23%	@ 4.00
Sassuolo Win	18%	16%	@ 6.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.12 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	80%	84%	@ 1.12
Sassuolo or Draw	43%	39%	@ 2.43

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	78%	@ 1.21
Under 3.5	68%	66%	@ 1.42
Over 2.5	55%	54%	@ 1.74
Under 2.5	45%	46%	@ 2.08
Over 3.5	32%	34%	@ 2.80
Under 1.5	22%	22%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.94

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atalanta or Sassuolo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta +0.5	80%	–	1.13
Sassuolo +2	77%	75%	1.27
Atalanta +0.25	74%	83%	1.15
Sassuolo +1.75	72%	67%	@ 1.42
Atalanta 0	68%	80%	1.20
Sassuolo +1.5	68%	61%	@ 1.55
Atalanta -0.25	63%	70%	1.36
Sassuolo +1.25	62%	55%	@ 1.72
Atalanta -0.5	57%	62%	1.52
Sassuolo +1	56%	49%	@ 1.99
Atalanta -0.75	51%	57%	1.67
Sassuolo +0.75	49%	43%	@ 2.25
Atalanta -1	44%	51%	1.90
Sassuolo +0.5	43%	38%	@ 2.49
Atalanta -1.25	38%	45%	2.15
Sassuolo +0.25	37%	30%	@ 3.18
Atalanta -1.5	32%	39%	2.42
Sassuolo 0	32%	20%	@ 4.72
Atalanta -1.75	28%	33%	2.91
Sassuolo -0.25	26%	17%	@ 5.50
Atalanta -2	23%	25%	3.74

📈 How the market moved

Atalanta 62%Draw 23%Sassuolo 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model's main pick is Sassuolo with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 55%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Atalanta vs Sassuolo.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.88 for Atalanta and 0.99 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.