Sun 23 Aug4-1Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco da Gama

Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama finished 4-1. Palmeiras won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Palmeiras face Vasco da Gama in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.7-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.32

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.74 – 0.60 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	5.8%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%
1	16.8%	10.1%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%
2	14.6%	8.7%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%
3	8.5%	5.1%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%
4	3.7%	2.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Palmeiras winDrawVasco da Gama win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Palmeiras 64%Draw 23%Vasco da Gama 12%

64%23%12%

64%

Palmeiras Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama. Wins shown from Palmeiras’s perspective: Palmeiras 4 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	Palmeiras	4 – 1	Vasco da Gama	W
2024-09-22	Vasco da Gama	0 – 1	Palmeiras	W
2024-06-14	Palmeiras	2 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W
2023-08-27	Palmeiras	1 – 0	Vasco da Gama	W
2023-04-23	Vasco da Gama	2 – 2	Palmeiras	D

📈 Recent form

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to São Paulo. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at LDU de Quito.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LLDU de Quito 3-2 PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
WPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Palmeiras

JefteKnee Injury
PaulinhoMuscle Injury
J. PiquerezFoot Injury
R. SosaMuscle Injury

Vasco da Gama

BrennerKnee Injury
JairMuscle Injury
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
J. RojasNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Palmeiras at 64% to win and Vasco da Gama at 12%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	64%	60%	@ 1.56
Draw	23%	24%	@ 3.85
Vasco da Gama Win	12%	16%	@ 6.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.12 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	86%	84%	@ 1.12
Vasco da Gama or Draw	34%	40%	@ 2.35

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	71%	@ 1.32
Over 1.5	68%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	58%	51%	@ 1.86
Over 2.5	42%	49%	@ 1.90
Under 1.5	32%	27%	@ 3.55
Over 3.5	21%	29%	@ 3.30

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	62%	52%	@ 1.78
BTTS Yes	38%	48%	@ 1.93

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Palmeiras or Vasco da Gama is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras +0.5	86%	83%	1.14
Palmeiras +0.25	81%	81%	1.17
Palmeiras 0	76%	78%	1.22
Palmeiras -0.25	71%	68%	1.41
Vasco da Gama +2	69%	–	1.21
Palmeiras -0.5	66%	60%	@ 1.57
Vasco da Gama +1.75	64%	71%	1.34
Palmeiras -0.75	60%	54%	@ 1.76
Vasco da Gama +1.5	59%	64%	1.47
Palmeiras -1	54%	47%	@ 2.06
Vasco da Gama +1.25	53%	60%	1.60
Palmeiras -1.25	47%	40%	@ 2.35
Vasco da Gama +1	46%	53%	1.81
Palmeiras -1.5	41%	36%	@ 2.61
Vasco da Gama +0.75	40%	46%	2.08
Palmeiras -1.75	36%	29%	@ 3.24
Vasco da Gama +0.5	34%	40%	2.36
Vasco da Gama +0.25	29%	32%	2.92
Vasco da Gama 0	24%	22%	@ 4.32
Vasco da Gama -0.25	19%	19%	5.00
Vasco da Gama -0.5	14%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Palmeiras 60%Draw 24%Vasco da Gama 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.74 for Palmeiras and 0.60 for Vasco da Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Palmeiras and Vasco da Gama play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.