⚽ Major League Soccer

New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New England Revolution vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 20:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

New England Revolution face New York City FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 20:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, New York City FC won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New England Revolution vs New York City FC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	9.6%	5.7%	2.2%	0.7%
1	10.8%	12.8%	7.5%	3.0%	0.9%
2	7.2%	8.5%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.2%	3.8%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

New England Revolution winDrawNew York City FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New England Revolution vs New York City FC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a New England Revolution win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+13.7% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.10, 54% model probability, +13.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

New England Revolution 39%Draw 31%New York City FC 30%

39%31%30%

39%

New England Revolution Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

+13.7%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between New England Revolution and New York City FC. Wins shown from New England Revolution’s perspective: 2 drawn · New York City FC 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-05-25	New England Revolution	0 – 1	New York City FC	L
2024-04-13	New York City FC	2 – 0	New England Revolution	L
2023-06-03	New York City FC	0 – 0	New England Revolution	D
2023-04-01	New England Revolution	1 – 1	New York City FC	D

📈 Recent form

New England Revolution

New England Revolution come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at DC United. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Toronto FC.

WDC United 0-3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
LToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
LNew England Revolution 0-2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
DCF Montreal 2-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
WNew England Revolution 4-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Santos Laguna. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at FC Cincinnati.

LFC Cincinnati 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 NecaxaLeagues Cup
LCruz Azul 2-1 New York City FCLeagues Cup
WNew York City FC 2-0 Santos LagunaLeagues Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

New England Revolution

I. FeingoldLower-Body Injury
L. LangoniLower-Body Injury
B. RainesSuspended (cards)
L. CampanaHamstring Injury
A. FarrellLower-Body Injury
D. TurgemanInjury

New York City FC

D. BaieraKnee Injury
A. FarnosInjury
A. MartinezKnee Injury
M. MoralezKnee Injury
A. O'NeillAnkle Injury
Thiago MartinsLeg Injury
K. TrewinAnkle Injury
H. WolfLeg Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New England Revolution at 39% to win and New York City FC at 30%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	31%	@ 3.55	+9.6%
New England Revolution Win	39%	@ 2.70	+5.0%
New York City FC Win	30%	@ 2.40	-27.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New England Revolution or Draw at 1.55 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
New England Revolution or Draw	68%	@ 1.55	+4.5%
New York City FC or Draw	59%	@ 1.45	-14.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	28%	@ 4.20	+19.8%
Under 2.5	54%	@ 2.10	+13.7%
Under 3.5	76%	@ 1.42	+7.3%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.22	-12.8%
Over 2.5	46%	@ 1.70	-22.0%
Over 3.5	24%	@ 2.80	-31.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	49%	@ 2.25	+11.2%
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 1.57	-20.6%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
Dixon-Coles	Away	38%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.39 for the home side, 1.21 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New England Revolution vs New York City FC?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+13.7% value).

Who is the favourite for New England Revolution vs New York City FC?

Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for New England Revolution vs New York City FC.

What is the predicted score for New England Revolution vs New York City FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for New England Revolution and 1.18 for New York City FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New England Revolution and New York City FC play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 20:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.