⚽ Brazilian Série A

Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Chapecoense-sc face Sao Paulo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Sao Paulo win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.1-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

82%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.13 – 2.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.3%	8.7%	8.7%	5.9%	3.0%
1	4.8%	9.8%	9.9%	6.7%	3.4%
2	2.7%	5.5%	5.6%	3.8%	1.9%
3	1.0%	2.1%	2.1%	1.4%	0.7%
4	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-2

Chapecoense-sc winDrawSao Paulo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Sao Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+28.0% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.10, 61% model probability, +28.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Chapecoense-sc 25%Draw 26%Sao Paulo 49%

25%26%49%

49%

Sao Paulo Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+28.0%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Coritiba.

DChapecoense-sc 3-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-0 Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
DChapecoense-sc 0-0 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
DSantos 2-2 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Bolívar. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Gremio.

WSao Paulo 3-1 BolívarCONMEBOL Sudamericana
DSao Paulo 1-1 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DBolívar 1-1 Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LGremio 2-1 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A
DFlamengo 1-1 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chapecoense-sc at 25% to win and Sao Paulo at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Sao Paulo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sao Paulo Win	49%	@ 2.00	-2.4%
Chapecoense-sc Win	25%	@ 3.75	-5.7%
Draw	26%	@ 3.25	-15.2%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sao Paulo or Draw at 1.25 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Sao Paulo or Draw	74%	@ 1.25	-7.0%
Chapecoense-sc or Draw	51%	@ 1.75	-11.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	39%	@ 3.75	+44.9%
Over 2.5	61%	@ 2.10	+28.0%
Over 1.5	82%	@ 1.36	+11.8%
Under 3.5	61%	@ 1.25	-23.3%
Under 2.5	39%	@ 1.73	-32.4%
Under 1.5	18%	@ 3.10	-44.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.83	+8.8%
BTTS No	40%	@ 1.85	-25.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	58%
Dixon-Coles	Away	57%
GradientBoosting	Away	43%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.06 for the home side, 1.58 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+28.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?

Our model makes a Sao Paulo win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.1-2.0 scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo.

What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Chapecoense-sc and 2.02 for Sao Paulo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chapecoense-sc and Sao Paulo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.