Sun 23 Aug1-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Chapecoense vs São Paulo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chapecoense vs São Paulo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Chapecoense 1-0 São Paulo

Chapecoense vs São Paulo finished 1-0. Chapecoense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Chapecoense face São Paulo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 47%, projecting a 1.3-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chapecoense vs São Paulo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.6%	7.2%	7.2%	4.7%	2.4%
1	4.8%	9.6%	9.5%	6.3%	3.1%
2	3.2%	6.4%	6.3%	4.2%	2.1%
3	1.4%	2.8%	2.8%	1.9%	0.9%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Chapecoense winDrawSão Paulo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chapecoense vs São Paulo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a São Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 47%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Chapecoense 27%Draw 26%São Paulo 47%

27%26%47%

47%

São Paulo Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Chapecoense

Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.

DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A

São Paulo

São Paulo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Palmeiras.

WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DSão Paulo 1-1 Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LPalmeiras 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
LBoca Juniors 1-0 São PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Chapecoense

Y. BolasieInjury
Bruno TubaraoNot in squad
Joao PauloHealth problems
Max AlvesInjury
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
Victor CaetanoSuspended (cards)

São Paulo

D. BobadillaNot in squad
Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
Lucca MarquesJaw injury
Robert ArboledaNot in squad
R. ToloiMuscle Injury
Victor SaNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chapecoense at 27% to win and São Paulo at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo Win	47%	45%	@ 2.06
Chapecoense Win	27%	26%	@ 3.55
Draw	26%	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is São Paulo or Draw at 1.28 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
São Paulo or Draw	73%	74%	@ 1.28
Chapecoense or Draw	53%	55%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	64%	47%	@ 2.02
Under 3.5	58%	74%	@ 1.27
Over 3.5	42%	26%	@ 3.60
Under 2.5	36%	53%	@ 1.78
Under 1.5	16%	28%	@ 3.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	53%	@ 1.76
BTTS No	36%	47%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Chapecoense or São Paulo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chapecoense +1.75	80%	83%	1.15
São Paulo +0.75	77%	80%	1.18
Chapecoense +1.5	76%	76%	1.24
São Paulo +0.5	73%	–	1.28
Chapecoense +1.25	70%	73%	1.29
São Paulo +0.25	66%	70%	1.36
Chapecoense +1	65%	70%	1.37
São Paulo 0	60%	64%	1.49
Chapecoense +0.75	59%	61%	1.56
São Paulo -0.25	53%	54%	1.79
Chapecoense +0.5	53%	54%	1.75
São Paulo -0.5	47%	46%	2.05
Chapecoense +0.25	47%	46%	2.08
São Paulo -0.75	41%	39%	2.42
Chapecoense 0	40%	36%	@ 2.67
São Paulo -1	35%	30%	@ 3.12
Chapecoense -0.25	34%	30%	@ 3.17
São Paulo -1.25	30%	27%	@ 3.58
São Paulo -1.5	24%	24%	3.92
Chapecoense -0.75	23%	20%	@ 4.65
São Paulo -1.75	20%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Chapecoense 25%Draw 29%São Paulo 46%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense vs São Paulo?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Chapecoense vs São Paulo?

Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 47%. It projects an expected 1.3-2.0 scoreline for Chapecoense vs São Paulo.

What is the predicted score for Chapecoense vs São Paulo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Chapecoense and 1.99 for São Paulo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chapecoense and São Paulo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.