⚽ Brazilian Série A
Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.
Result: Botafogo 2-3 Athletico Paranaense
Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense finished 2-3. Athletico Paranaense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Botafogo face Athletico Paranaense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 1, Athletico Paranaense won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 13.0% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.8% | 8.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Botafogo and Athletico Paranaense. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 1 · 2 drawn · Athletico Paranaense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Botafogo | 2 – 3 | Athletico Paranaense | L |
| 2026-03-29 | Athletico Paranaense | 4 – 1 | Botafogo | L |
| 2024-10-05 | Athletico Paranaense | 0 – 1 | Botafogo | W |
| 2024-06-19 | Botafogo | 1 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
| 2023-10-22 | Botafogo | 1 – 1 | Athletico Paranaense | D |
📈 Recent form
Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.
- LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
- DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
- DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
- LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
Athletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Bahia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Cruzeiro.
- WAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
- DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- DAthletico Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 2-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Arthur CabralSuspended (red card)
- J. BarreraInjury
- Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
- PaulinhoInjury
- WarlesonInjury
- ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
- L. EsquivelAnkle Injury
- GilbertoAnkle Injury
- Leo DerikThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Botafogo at 49% to win and Athletico Paranaense at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo Win | 49% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Athletico Paranaense Win | 23% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo or Draw | 75% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Athletico Paranaense or Draw | 50% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80% | 74% | @ 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 66% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
| Under 1.5 | 34% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 55% | 47% | @ 1.96 |
| BTTS Yes | 45% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Botafogo or Athletico Paranaense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo +1.5 | 91% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Botafogo +1.25 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Botafogo +1 | 83% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Botafogo +0.75 | 79% | – | 1.22 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.75 | 77% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Botafogo +0.5 | 75% | – | 1.32 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.5 | 73% | 77% | 1.20 |
| Botafogo +0.25 | 69% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1.25 | 67% | – | 1.25 |
| Botafogo 0 | 63% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Athletico Paranaense +1 | 61% | 74% | 1.29 |
| Botafogo -0.25 | 57% | 50% | @ 1.95 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.75 | 55% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Botafogo -0.5 | 50% | 43% | @ 2.21 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.5 | 50% | 57% | 1.64 |
| Botafogo -0.75 | 45% | 35% | @ 2.71 |
| Athletico Paranaense +0.25 | 43% | 50% | 1.92 |
| Botafogo -1 | 39% | 26% | @ 3.62 |
| Athletico Paranaense 0 | 37% | 40% | 2.40 |
| Athletico Paranaense -0.25 | 31% | 33% | 2.88 |
| Botafogo -1.5 | 27% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Botafogo -1.75 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1 | 17% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.25 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
| Athletico Paranaense -1.5 | 9% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?
Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Athletico Paranaense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.31 for Botafogo and 0.97 for Athletico Paranaense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Botafogo and Athletico Paranaense play?
Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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