⚽ Brazilian Série A

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Botafogo face Atletico Paranaense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Botafogo won 1, Atletico Paranaense won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

79%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.36 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	9.4%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.0%	12.8%	6.4%	2.1%	0.5%
2	8.8%	8.7%	4.3%	1.4%	0.4%
3	4.0%	4.0%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Botafogo winDrawAtletico Paranaense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.00 (+6.9% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 2.00, 53% model probability, +6.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Botafogo 49%Draw 28%Atletico Paranaense 23%

49%28%23%

49%

Botafogo Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

+6.9%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense. Wins shown from Botafogo’s perspective: Botafogo 1 · 2 drawn · Atletico Paranaense 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-29	Atletico Paranaense	4 – 1	Botafogo	L
2024-10-05	Atletico Paranaense	0 – 1	Botafogo	W
2024-06-19	Botafogo	1 – 1	Atletico Paranaense	D
2023-10-22	Botafogo	1 – 1	Atletico Paranaense	D
2023-06-03	Atletico Paranaense	1 – 0	Botafogo	L

📈 Recent form

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Cienciano. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Vitoria.

WBotafogo 1-0 CiencianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LVitoria 1-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LCienciano 6-1 BotafogoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WCruzeiro 0-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A

Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Santos. Their only defeat in that run was 0-4 at Vitoria.

DAtletico Paranaense 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
WSantos 0-2 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LVitoria 4-0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
DCorinthians 0-0 Atletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
WAtletico Paranaense 2-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Botafogo

Arthur CabralSuspended (red card)
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
PaulinhoInjury
J. BarreraInjury

Atletico Paranaense

ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
L. EsquivelAnkle Injury
Leo DerikNot in squad
C. TeranInjury
Dudu KogitzkiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Botafogo at 49% to win and Atletico Paranaense at 23%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo Win	49%	@ 2.30	+13.0%
Draw	28%	@ 3.00	-15.3%
Atletico Paranaense Win	23%	@ 3.30	-25.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.30 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo or Draw	76%	@ 1.30	-1.7%
Atletico Paranaense or Draw	49%	@ 1.60	-21.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.80	+4.9%
Under 1.5	32%	@ 3.25	+3.8%
Under 3.5	79%	@ 1.30	+2.6%
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.33	-9.5%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 2.00	-16.6%
Over 3.5	21%	@ 3.45	-27.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	53%	@ 2.00	+6.9%
BTTS Yes	47%	@ 1.73	-19.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	55%
Dixon-Coles	Away	34%
GradientBoosting	Home	52%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.62 for the home side, 1.04 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.00 (+6.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense.

What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.36 for Botafogo and 0.99 for Atletico Paranaense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense play?

Kick-off is Monday 24 August 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.