⚽ Ligue 1

Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Rennes face Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Rennes won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 2.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.38

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.42 – 1.20 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.7%	3.2%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%
1	6.5%	7.8%	4.7%	1.9%	0.6%
2	7.8%	9.4%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
3	6.3%	7.6%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
4	3.8%	4.6%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Rennes winDrawParis Saint-Germain win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rennes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

Largest model edge

BTTS Yes at odds 1.55, 64% model probability, -0.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Rennes 61%Draw 21%Paris Saint-Germain 17%

61%21%17%

61%

Rennes Win

70%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

-0.7%

Model edge: BTTS Yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Rennes and Paris Saint-Germain. Wins shown from Rennes’s perspective: Rennes 1 · 1 drawn · Paris Saint-Germain 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-13	Rennes	3 – 1	Paris Saint-Germain	W
2025-12-06	Paris Saint-Germain	5 – 0	Rennes	L
2025-03-08	Rennes	1 – 4	Paris Saint-Germain	L
2024-09-27	Paris Saint-Germain	3 – 1	Rennes	L
2024-02-25	Paris Saint-Germain	1 – 1	Rennes	D

📈 Recent form

Rennes

Rennes come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Guingamp. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Sunderland.

LSunderland 2-1 RennesFriendlies Clubs
LRennes 2-4 BrentfordFriendlies Clubs
DGalatasaray 3-3 RennesFriendlies Clubs
WRennes 2-1 Club Brugge KVFriendlies Clubs
WRennes 3-1 GuingampFriendlies Clubs

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Lens.

LLens 1-0 Paris Saint-GermainTrophée des Champions
WParis Saint-Germain 2-1 Aston VillaUEFA Super Cup
DManchester United 1-1 Paris Saint-GermainFriendlies Clubs
LMallorca 3-0 Paris Saint-GermainFriendlies Clubs
DParis Saint-Germain 1-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Rennes

B. BarcolaNot in squad
I. MbayeNot in squad
N. MendesSuspended (red card)

Paris Saint-Germain

M. CamaraSuspended (cards)

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Rennes at 61% to win and Paris Saint-Germain at 17%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Paris Saint-Germain Win	17%	@ 7.10	+22.2%
Draw	21%	@ 5.10	+9.2%
Rennes Win	61%	@ 1.37	-15.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 2.95 (39% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw	39%	@ 2.95	+14.8%
Rennes or Draw	83%	@ 1.09	-9.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	88%	@ 1.11	-2.8%
Over 2.5	70%	@ 1.38	-3.3%
Over 3.5	49%	@ 1.95	-4.7%
Under 3.5	51%	@ 1.83	-6.5%
Under 2.5	30%	@ 3.00	-10.2%
Under 1.5	12%	@ 6.25	-22.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	64%	@ 1.55	-0.7%
BTTS No	36%	@ 2.30	-17.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	64%
Dixon-Coles	Home	64%
GradientBoosting	Home	60%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.90 for the home side, 0.89 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with a 70% model probability.

Who is the favourite for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Our model makes a Rennes win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.2 scoreline for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain.

What is the predicted score for Rennes vs Paris Saint-Germain?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.42 for Rennes and 1.20 for Paris Saint-Germain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Rennes and Paris Saint-Germain play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then shown next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.