Thu 27 Aug4-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

SC Freiburg vs Motherwell Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: SC Freiburg 4-1 Motherwell

SC Freiburg vs Motherwell finished 4-1. SC Freiburg won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

SC Freiburg face Motherwell in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, SC Freiburg won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Motherwell +2 @ 1.81

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.66 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.9%	6.9%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.8%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.1%	9.5%	5.6%	2.2%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.3%	3.1%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

SC Freiburg winDrawMotherwell win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Motherwell with a +2 start at odds 1.81, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

📊 Key numbers

SC Freiburg 18%Draw 67%Motherwell 15%

18%67%15%

67%

Draw

54%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between SC Freiburg and Motherwell. Wins shown from SC Freiburg’s perspective: SC Freiburg 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	SC Freiburg	4 – 1	Motherwell	W
2026-08-20	Motherwell	1 – 3	SC Freiburg	W

📈 Recent form

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee Utd. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Dundee.

LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership
WMotherwell 3-0 Dundee UtdPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 18% to win and Motherwell at 15%, with the draw at 67%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	67%	15%	@ 6.25
SC Freiburg Win	18%	77%	@ 1.20
Motherwell Win	15%	8%	@ 11.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.01 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
SC Freiburg or Draw	65%	92%	@ 1.01
Motherwell or Draw	62%	23%	@ 3.85

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	84%	@ 1.09
Under 3.5	68%	56%	@ 1.64
Over 2.5	54%	65%	@ 1.41
Under 2.5	46%	35%	@ 2.65
Over 3.5	32%	44%	@ 2.08
Under 1.5	23%	16%	@ 5.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	56%	48%	@ 1.92
BTTS No	44%	52%	@ 1.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when SC Freiburg or Motherwell is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Motherwell +2	88%	52%	@ 1.81
Motherwell +1.75	86%	46%	@ 2.05
Motherwell +1.5	83%	42%	@ 2.24
Motherwell +1.25	78%	35%	@ 2.68
Motherwell +1	72%	28%	@ 3.37
Motherwell +0.75	67%	26%	@ 3.55
Motherwell +0.5	62%	24%	@ 4.00
Motherwell +0.25	55%	18%	@ 5.25
SC Freiburg -0.25	45%	82%	1.16
SC Freiburg -0.5	38%	76%	1.23
SC Freiburg -0.75	33%	74%	1.27
SC Freiburg -1	28%	72%	1.30
SC Freiburg -1.25	22%	65%	1.45
SC Freiburg -1.5	17%	58%	1.59
SC Freiburg -1.75	14%	54%	1.75
SC Freiburg -2	12%	48%	1.97

📈 How the market moved

SC Freiburg 77%Draw 15%Motherwell 9%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

Our model's main pick is Motherwell with a +2 start at odds 1.81, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 52%.

Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell.

What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Motherwell?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.66 for SC Freiburg and 1.17 for Motherwell. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do SC Freiburg and Motherwell play?

Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.