Aarhus

Thu 27 Aug1-3Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa League

Aarhus vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aarhus vs Benfica in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica

Aarhus vs Benfica finished 1-3. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Aarhus face Benfica in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.0-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aarhus vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.58

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.01 – 0.88 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.1%	13.3%	5.8%	1.7%	0.4%
1	15.3%	13.4%	5.9%	1.7%	0.4%
2	7.7%	6.8%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
3	2.6%	2.3%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Aarhus winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aarhus vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.58, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points no (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Aarhus 17%Draw 39%Benfica 43%

17%39%43%

43%

Benfica Win

71%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Aarhus and Benfica. Wins shown from Aarhus’s perspective: Benfica 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	Aarhus	1 – 3	Benfica	L
2026-08-20	Benfica	3 – 1	Aarhus	L

📈 Recent form

Aarhus

Aarhus come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Skjold Sæby. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at FC Nordsjaelland.

DAC Horsens 2-2 AarhusSuperliga
WSkjold Sæby 1-6 AarhusDBU Pokalen
LFC Nordsjaelland 2-0 AarhusSuperliga
DAarhus 2-2 SilkeborgSuperliga
LAarhus 0-2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aarhus at 17% to win and Benfica at 43%, with the draw at 39%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	43%	66%	@ 1.40
Draw	39%	20%	@ 4.60
Aarhus Win	17%	14%	@ 6.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.08 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	76%	86%	@ 1.08
Aarhus or Draw	49%	34%	@ 2.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	88%	58%	@ 1.58
Under 2.5	71%	38%	@ 2.43
Over 1.5	56%	81%	@ 1.14
Under 1.5	44%	19%	@ 4.75
Over 2.5	29%	62%	@ 1.48
Over 3.5	12%	42%	@ 2.18

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	63%	44%	@ 2.08
BTTS Yes	37%	56%	@ 1.64

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Aarhus or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Aarhus +2	81%	70%	@ 1.36
Benfica +0.75	79%	85%	1.12
Aarhus +1.75	77%	62%	@ 1.51
Benfica +0.5	76%	84%	1.12
Aarhus +1.5	73%	56%	@ 1.67
Benfica +0.25	69%	83%	1.14
Aarhus +1.25	67%	51%	@ 1.86
Benfica 0	63%	–	1.22
Aarhus +1	61%	45%	@ 2.10
Benfica -0.25	57%	71%	1.33
Aarhus +0.75	55%	40%	@ 2.38
Benfica -0.5	51%	65%	1.43
Aarhus +0.5	49%	35%	@ 2.68
Benfica -0.75	45%	60%	1.56
Aarhus +0.25	43%	29%	@ 3.25
Benfica -1	39%	55%	1.71
Benfica -1.25	33%	49%	1.96
Aarhus -0.25	31%	17%	@ 5.75
Benfica -1.5	27%	44%	2.14
Aarhus -0.5	24%	16%	@ 6.00
Benfica -1.75	23%	38%	2.50
Aarhus -0.75	21%	15%	@ 6.40
Benfica -2	19%	30%	3.10

📈 How the market moved

Aarhus 16%Draw 20%Benfica 64%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aarhus vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.58, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 58%.

Who is the favourite for Aarhus vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline for Aarhus vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Aarhus vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.01 for Aarhus and 0.88 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aarhus and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.