⚽ Ligue 1

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lille face Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.1-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Paris Saint Germain or Draw @ 1.25

78%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.13 – 1.66 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	10.2%	8.5%	4.7%	1.9%
1	6.9%	11.5%	9.6%	5.3%	2.2%
2	3.9%	6.5%	5.4%	3.0%	1.2%
3	1.5%	2.5%	2.0%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lille winDrawParis Saint Germain win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Paris Saint Germain or Draw at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.42, 69% model probability, -1.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lille 21%Draw 26%Paris Saint Germain 53%

21%26%53%

53%

Paris Saint Germain Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

-1.4%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lille and Paris Saint Germain. Wins shown from Lille’s perspective: 1 drawn · Paris Saint Germain 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-16	Paris Saint Germain	3 – 0	Lille	L
2025-10-05	Lille	1 – 1	Paris Saint Germain	D
2025-03-01	Paris Saint Germain	4 – 1	Lille	L
2024-09-01	Lille	1 – 3	Paris Saint Germain	L
2024-02-10	Paris Saint Germain	3 – 1	Lille	L

📈 Recent form

Lille

Lille come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at OH Leuven. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Auxerre.

DEverton 1-1 LilleFriendlies Clubs
DHamburger SV 2-2 LilleFriendlies Clubs
WOH Leuven 3-6 LilleFriendlies Clubs
WLille 3-0 RAAL La LouvièreFriendlies Clubs
LLille 0-2 AuxerreLigue 1

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Lens.

LLens 1-0 Paris Saint GermainTrophée des Champions
WParis Saint Germain 2-1 Aston VillaUEFA Super Cup
DManchester United 1-1 Paris Saint GermainFriendlies Clubs
LMallorca 3-0 Paris Saint GermainFriendlies Clubs
DParis Saint Germain 1-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lille at 21% to win and Paris Saint Germain at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Paris Saint Germain Win	53%	@ 1.85	-2.0%
Draw	26%	@ 3.70	-4.2%
Lille Win	21%	@ 3.85	-18.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint Germain or Draw at 1.25 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Paris Saint Germain or Draw	78%	@ 1.25	-2.6%
Lille or Draw	46%	@ 1.90	-12.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	47%	@ 2.10	-0.9%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.42	-1.4%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.22	-6.4%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 4.00	-6.9%
Over 2.5	53%	@ 1.73	-8.6%
Over 3.5	31%	@ 2.80	-14.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	45%	@ 2.15	-4.0%
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.62	-10.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our main pick is Paris Saint Germain or Draw at odds 1.25, with 78% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain.

What is the predicted score for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.13 for Lille and 1.66 for Paris Saint Germain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lille and Paris Saint Germain play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.