Fri 28 Aug2-0Finished

⚽ Serie A

AC Milan vs Venezia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AC Milan vs Venezia in the Serie A. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AC Milan 2-0 Venezia

AC Milan vs Venezia finished 2-0. AC Milan won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

AC Milan face Venezia in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, AC Milan won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.9-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AC Milan vs Venezia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Venezia +2 @ 1.39

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.91 – 0.84 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	5.4%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
1	12.2%	10.3%	4.3%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11.7%	9.8%	4.1%	1.2%	0.2%
3	7.4%	6.2%	2.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	3.5%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

AC Milan winDrawVenezia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AC Milan vs Venezia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Venezia with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AC Milan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

AC Milan 61%Draw 23%Venezia 16%

61%23%16%

61%

AC Milan Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between AC Milan and Venezia. Wins shown from AC Milan’s perspective: AC Milan 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-28	AC Milan	2 – 0	Venezia	W
2025-04-27	Venezia	0 – 2	AC Milan	W
2024-09-14	AC Milan	4 – 0	Venezia	W

📈 Recent form

AC Milan

AC Milan come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Lecce. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Benfica.

WAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
LAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
DJuventus 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
WAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Lazio.

LVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
LVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
LUdinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
LAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AC Milan

Y. FofanaTransfer negotiations
S. GimenezTransfer negotiations
R. LeaoMuscle Injury
F. TomoriTransfer negotiations

Venezia

A. AdoranteHernia
M. MorenoHealth problems
M. SverkoHip Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AC Milan at 61% to win and Venezia at 16%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan Win	61%	70%	@ 1.33
Draw	23%	19%	@ 4.90
Venezia Win	16%	10%	@ 9.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AC Milan or Draw at 1.06 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan or Draw	83%	90%	@ 1.06
Venezia or Draw	39%	30%	@ 3.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	76%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	70%	69%	@ 1.37
Over 2.5	52%	53%	@ 1.78
Under 2.5	48%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	30%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	24%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	57%	@ 1.65
BTTS Yes	48%	43%	@ 2.16

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AC Milan or Venezia is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AC Milan +0.5	83%	–	1.08
AC Milan +0.25	78%	86%	1.10
Venezia +2	73%	69%	@ 1.39
AC Milan 0	72%	85%	1.12
Venezia +1.75	68%	61%	@ 1.56
AC Milan -0.25	67%	76%	1.25
Venezia +1.5	63%	54%	@ 1.75
AC Milan -0.5	61%	69%	1.37
Venezia +1.25	57%	49%	@ 2.00
AC Milan -0.75	55%	65%	1.48
Venezia +1	51%	41%	@ 2.34
AC Milan -1	49%	59%	1.60
Venezia +0.75	45%	35%	@ 2.71
AC Milan -1.25	43%	51%	1.89
Venezia +0.5	39%	31%	@ 3.10
AC Milan -1.5	37%	46%	2.06
Venezia +0.25	33%	24%	@ 3.98
AC Milan -1.75	32%	39%	2.45
Venezia 0	28%	15%	@ 6.25
AC Milan -2	27%	31%	3.08
Venezia -0.25	22%	14%	@ 6.80

📈 How the market moved

AC Milan 69%Draw 20%Venezia 11%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Venezia?

Our model's main pick is Venezia with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Venezia?

Our model makes an AC Milan win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.9-0.8 scoreline for AC Milan vs Venezia.

What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Venezia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.91 for AC Milan and 0.84 for Venezia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AC Milan and Venezia play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.