Fri 28 Aug1-0Finished

⚽ La Liga

Alavés vs Villarreal Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alavés vs Villarreal in the La Liga. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Alavés 1-0 Villarreal

Alavés vs Villarreal finished 1-0. Alavés won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Alavés face Villarreal in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Alavés won 2, Villarreal won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alavés vs Villarreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Villarreal +0.75 @ 1.26

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.34 – 1.59 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	8.5%	6.7%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.2%	11.4%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.8%	7.6%	6.1%	3.2%	1.3%
3	2.1%	3.4%	2.7%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Alavés winDrawVillarreal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alavés vs Villarreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Villarreal with a +0.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Villarreal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Alavés 27%Draw 28%Villarreal 45%

27%28%45%

45%

Villarreal Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alavés and Villarreal. Wins shown from Alavés’s perspective: Alavés 2 · 1 drawn · Villarreal 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-28	Alavés	1 – 0	Villarreal	W
2026-03-13	Alavés	1 – 1	Villarreal	D
2026-01-10	Villarreal	3 – 1	Alavés	L
2025-03-08	Alavés	1 – 0	Villarreal	W
2024-11-09	Villarreal	3 – 0	Alavés	L

📈 Recent form

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga

Villarreal

Villarreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Levante. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Real Betis.

WVillarreal 3-1 LevanteLa Liga
WMálaga 1-3 VillarrealLa Liga
LVillarreal 1-2 Real BetisLa Liga
LBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
LVillarreal 2-3 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended

Villarreal

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alavés at 27% to win and Villarreal at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Villarreal Win	45%	44%	@ 2.15
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.55
Alavés Win	27%	30%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Villarreal or Draw at 1.34 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Villarreal or Draw	72%	70%	@ 1.34
Alavés or Draw	54%	56%	@ 1.68

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	76%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	66%	69%	@ 1.37
Over 2.5	56%	53%	@ 1.79
Under 2.5	44%	47%	@ 1.98
Over 3.5	34%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	21%	24%	@ 3.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	57%	@ 1.64
BTTS No	42%	43%	@ 2.15

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Alavés or Villarreal is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Villarreal +1.5	89%	85%	1.10
Villarreal +1.25	85%	84%	1.13
Villarreal +1	80%	–	1.19
Alavés +1.5	77%	77%	1.21
Villarreal +0.75	76%	75%	1.26
Villarreal +0.5	72%	–	1.39
Alavés +1.25	71%	75%	1.26
Alavés +1	66%	73%	1.31
Villarreal +0.25	65%	64%	1.49
Alavés +0.75	60%	64%	1.50
Villarreal 0	59%	58%	1.63
Alavés +0.5	54%	57%	1.67
Villarreal -0.25	52%	49%	@ 1.98
Alavés +0.25	48%	51%	1.91
Villarreal -0.5	46%	43%	@ 2.17
Alavés 0	41%	42%	2.26
Villarreal -0.75	40%	36%	@ 2.65
Alavés -0.25	35%	36%	2.68
Villarreal -1	34%	27%	@ 3.48
Villarreal -1.25	29%	25%	@ 3.88
Alavés -0.75	24%	25%	3.85
Villarreal -1.5	23%	23%	4.08
Alavés -1.25	15%	16%	5.90
Alavés -1.5	11%	15%	6.33

📈 How the market moved

Alavés 30%Draw 27%Villarreal 43%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alavés vs Villarreal?

Our model's main pick is Villarreal with a +0.75 start at odds 1.26, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Alavés vs Villarreal?

Our model makes a Villarreal win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Alavés vs Villarreal.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Villarreal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Alavés and 1.59 for Villarreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alavés and Villarreal play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.