Sat 29 Aug2-1Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam finished 2-1. Excelsior won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Excelsior face Sparta Rotterdam in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Excelsior have 3 wins from their last 5, while Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Excelsior won 3, Sparta Rotterdam won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.52

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	7.3%	4.9%	2.2%	0.7%
1	8.6%	11.5%	7.6%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.8%	9.0%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.5%	4.7%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.4%	1.9%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Excelsior winDrawSparta Rotterdam win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Excelsior win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Excelsior 40%Draw 28%Sparta Rotterdam 32%

40%28%32%

40%

Excelsior Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: Excelsior 3 · Sparta Rotterdam 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Excelsior	2 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	W
2026-05-17	Sparta Rotterdam	2 – 3	Excelsior	W
2025-09-14	Excelsior	0 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	L
2024-02-17	Sparta Rotterdam	4 – 2	Excelsior	L
2023-10-01	Excelsior	2 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	W

📈 Recent form

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 15. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Heerenveen.

LSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
LPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
LExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 1 player listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Excelsior

N. NaujoksNot in squad

Sparta Rotterdam

No absentees reported.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Excelsior at 40% to win and Sparta Rotterdam at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Excelsior Win	40%	39%	@ 2.38
Sparta Rotterdam Win	32%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	28%	26%	@ 3.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Excelsior or Draw at 1.45 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Excelsior or Draw	67%	65%	@ 1.45
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	59%	61%	@ 1.55

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	67%	62%	@ 1.52
Over 2.5	55%	59%	@ 1.58
Under 2.5	45%	41%	@ 2.32
Over 3.5	33%	38%	@ 2.48
Under 1.5	22%	19%	@ 4.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	63%	@ 1.47
BTTS No	41%	37%	@ 2.48

📈 How the market moved

Excelsior 40%Draw 25%Sparta Rotterdam 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Excelsior and 1.33 for Sparta Rotterdam. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.