⚽ Eredivisie

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Excelsior face Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Excelsior have 3 wins from their last 5, while Sparta Rotterdam have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Excelsior won 2, Sparta Rotterdam won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.60

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	7.3%	4.9%	2.2%	0.7%
1	8.6%	11.5%	7.6%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.8%	9.0%	6.0%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.5%	4.7%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.4%	1.9%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Excelsior winDrawSparta Rotterdam win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.60, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates an Excelsior win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.60, 67% model probability, +7.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Excelsior 40%Draw 28%Sparta Rotterdam 32%

40%28%32%

40%

Excelsior Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

+7.1%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam. Wins shown from Excelsior’s perspective: Excelsior 2 · Sparta Rotterdam 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-17	Sparta Rotterdam	2 – 3	Excelsior	W
2025-09-14	Excelsior	0 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	L
2024-02-17	Sparta Rotterdam	4 – 2	Excelsior	L
2023-10-01	Excelsior	2 – 1	Sparta Rotterdam	W

📈 Recent form

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

LExcelsior 1-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WCambuur 0-4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WDe Graafschap 1-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
WHeracles 3-5 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
WNAC Breda 1-3 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Telstar. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Feyenoord.

DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
WTelstar 1-3 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
LSparta Rotterdam 0-1 FeyenoordEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 0-0 MSV DuisburgFriendlies Clubs
DSparta Rotterdam 1-1 Asteras TripolisFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Excelsior at 40% to win and Sparta Rotterdam at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 3.71	+4.5%
Excelsior Win	40%	@ 2.45	-2.8%
Sparta Rotterdam Win	32%	@ 2.68	-13.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	22%	@ 5.13	+10.1%
Under 2.5	45%	@ 2.46	+9.7%
Under 3.5	67%	@ 1.60	+7.1%
Over 1.5	78%	@ 1.16	-8.9%
Over 2.5	55%	@ 1.56	-13.6%
Over 3.5	33%	@ 2.36	-22.0%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.60, with 67% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our model makes an Excelsior win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Excelsior and 1.33 for Sparta Rotterdam. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.