Sat 29 Aug0-3Finished

⚽ Serie A

Fiorentina vs Frosinone Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fiorentina vs Frosinone in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Fiorentina 0-3 Frosinone

Fiorentina vs Frosinone finished 0-3. Frosinone won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Fiorentina face Frosinone in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Fiorentina won 1, Frosinone won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 2.2-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fiorentina vs Frosinone with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

87%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.25 – 1.28 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.9%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
1	6.6%	8.4%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%
2	7.4%	9.5%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%
3	5.6%	7.1%	4.6%	1.9%	0.6%
4	3.1%	4.0%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Fiorentina winDrawFrosinone win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Frosinone comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 87% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fiorentina win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Fiorentina 52%Draw 26%Frosinone 22%

52%26%22%

52%

Fiorentina Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Fiorentina and Frosinone. Wins shown from Fiorentina’s perspective: Fiorentina 1 · 1 drawn · Frosinone 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Fiorentina	0 – 3	Frosinone	L
2024-02-11	Fiorentina	5 – 1	Frosinone	W
2023-09-28	Frosinone	1 – 1	Fiorentina	D

📈 Recent form

Fiorentina

Fiorentina come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Pisa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Torino.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WFiorentina 3-0 PisaCoppa Italia
WVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
LFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Fiorentina. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fiorentina

M. KeanTransfer negotiations
F. ParisiKnee Injury
R. SottilBack Injury

Frosinone

F. GhedjemisCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fiorentina at 52% to win and Frosinone at 22%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina Win	52%	58%	@ 1.62
Draw	26%	25%	@ 3.80
Frosinone Win	22%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fiorentina or Draw at 1.15 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina or Draw	78%	82%	@ 1.15
Frosinone or Draw	47%	42%	@ 2.23

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	87%	75%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	68%	52%	@ 1.81
Under 3.5	53%	69%	@ 1.36
Over 3.5	47%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 2.5	32%	48%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	13%	25%	@ 3.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	51%	@ 1.82
BTTS No	37%	49%	@ 1.92

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Fiorentina or Frosinone is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fiorentina +0.75	81%	86%	1.11
Frosinone +2	79%	79%	1.20
Fiorentina +0.5	78%	81%	1.17
Frosinone +1.75	75%	72%	1.33
Fiorentina +0.25	72%	79%	1.21
Frosinone +1.5	71%	65%	@ 1.45
Fiorentina 0	66%	76%	1.26
Frosinone +1.25	65%	60%	@ 1.58
Fiorentina -0.25	60%	66%	1.44
Frosinone +1	59%	55%	@ 1.74
Fiorentina -0.5	53%	59%	1.61
Frosinone +0.75	53%	47%	@ 2.06
Fiorentina -0.75	47%	53%	1.82
Frosinone +0.5	47%	41%	@ 2.28
Fiorentina -1	41%	45%	2.10
Frosinone +0.25	41%	34%	@ 2.81
Fiorentina -1.25	35%	40%	2.42
Frosinone 0	34%	24%	@ 3.92
Fiorentina -1.5	29%	35%	2.71
Frosinone -0.25	28%	21%	@ 4.50
Fiorentina -1.75	25%	28%	3.37
Frosinone -0.5	22%	19%	@ 4.90
Fiorentina -2	21%	21%	4.40
Frosinone -0.75	19%	14%	@ 6.60

📈 How the market moved

Fiorentina 58%Draw 24%Frosinone 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 87% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

Our model makes a Fiorentina win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.3 scoreline for Fiorentina vs Frosinone.

What is the predicted score for Fiorentina vs Frosinone?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Fiorentina and 1.28 for Frosinone. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fiorentina and Frosinone play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.