Sat 29 Aug1-2Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Lorient vs Estac Troyes Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lorient vs Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes

Lorient vs Estac Troyes finished 1-2. Estac Troyes won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Lorient face Estac Troyes in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lorient vs Estac Troyes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Estac Troyes +1.5 @ 1.31

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.52 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	6.4%	4.9%	2.5%	0.9%
1	7.0%	10.6%	8.0%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.7%	8.7%	6.6%	3.3%	1.3%
3	3.1%	4.7%	3.6%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.3%	1.9%	1.5%	0.7%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Lorient winDrawEstac Troyes win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lorient vs Estac Troyes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Estac Troyes with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Lorient 26%Draw 44%Estac Troyes 31%

26%44%31%

44%

Draw

61%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Lorient

Lorient come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Lens. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Le Mans.

LLe Mans 2-1 LorientLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DNice 0-0 LorientLigue 1

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lorient. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Angers.

LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lorient

M. BambaLacking Match Fitness

Estac Troyes

I. BouraInjury
A. FatahHamstring Injury
Y. TitiInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lorient at 26% to win and Estac Troyes at 31%, with the draw at 44%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	44%	27%	@ 3.50
Estac Troyes Win	31%	22%	@ 4.25
Lorient Win	26%	52%	@ 1.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estac Troyes or Draw at 1.96 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estac Troyes or Draw	66%	48%	@ 1.96
Lorient or Draw	61%	78%	@ 1.21

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	73%	@ 1.28
Over 2.5	61%	49%	@ 1.91
Under 3.5	61%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 3.5	39%	28%	@ 3.35
Under 2.5	39%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 1.5	18%	27%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	52%	@ 1.79
BTTS No	37%	48%	@ 1.93

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lorient or Estac Troyes is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estac Troyes +2	90%	85%	@ 1.12
Estac Troyes +1.75	88%	78%	@ 1.21
Estac Troyes +1.5	85%	–	@ 1.31
Estac Troyes +1.25	80%	68%	@ 1.40
Estac Troyes +1	76%	64%	@ 1.50
Estac Troyes +0.75	71%	55%	@ 1.74
Lorient +0.75	66%	83%	1.15
Estac Troyes +0.5	66%	48%	@ 1.97
Lorient +0.5	61%	–	1.22
Estac Troyes +0.25	59%	41%	@ 2.35
Lorient +0.25	54%	74%	1.28
Estac Troyes 0	52%	31%	@ 3.09
Lorient 0	48%	69%	1.37
Estac Troyes -0.25	46%	26%	@ 3.69
Lorient -0.25	41%	59%	1.61
Lorient -0.5	34%	52%	1.83
Estac Troyes -0.75	34%	17%	@ 5.50
Lorient -0.75	29%	45%	2.12
Lorient -1	24%	36%	2.63
Lorient -1.25	20%	32%	3.03
Lorient -1.75	12%	22%	4.25
Lorient -2	10%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

Lorient 51%Draw 27%Estac Troyes 22%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

Our model's main pick is Estac Troyes with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.5 scoreline for Lorient vs Estac Troyes.

What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Estac Troyes?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for Lorient and 1.52 for Estac Troyes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lorient and Estac Troyes play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.