Sat 29 Aug1-3Finished

⚽ La Liga

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Sevilla 1-3 Atlético Madrid

Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid finished 1-3. Atlético Madrid won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Sevilla face Atlético Madrid in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. Recent form: Sevilla have 3 wins from their last 5, while Atlético Madrid have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Sevilla won 1, Atlético Madrid won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.61 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	10.2%	8.2%	4.4%	1.8%
1	7.3%	11.7%	9.4%	5.1%	2.0%
2	4.2%	6.7%	5.4%	2.9%	1.2%
3	1.6%	2.6%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sevilla winDrawAtlético Madrid win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Sevilla 24%Draw 27%Atlético Madrid 50%

24%27%50%

50%

Atlético Madrid Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Sevilla and Atlético Madrid. Wins shown from Sevilla’s perspective: Sevilla 1 · Atlético Madrid 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Sevilla	1 – 3	Atlético Madrid	L
2026-04-11	Sevilla	2 – 1	Atlético Madrid	W
2025-11-01	Atlético Madrid	3 – 0	Sevilla	L
2025-04-06	Sevilla	1 – 2	Atlético Madrid	L
2024-12-08	Atlético Madrid	4 – 3	Sevilla	L

📈 Recent form

Sevilla

Sevilla come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Deportivo La Coruña. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Barcelona.

LSevilla 1-3 BarcelonaLa Liga
WDeportivo La Coruña 0-1 SevillaLa Liga
WSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
DEspanyol 1-1 SevillaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.

WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sevilla

R. VargasKnee Injury

Atlético Madrid

J. AlvarezPersonal Reasons
R. Le NormandSuspended (red card)
T. LemarCoach's decision
A. SorlothMuscle Injury
O. VargasCoach's decision

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sevilla at 24% to win and Atlético Madrid at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid Win	50%	45%	@ 2.10
Draw	27%	28%	@ 3.35
Sevilla Win	24%	27%	@ 3.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.29 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid or Draw	76%	73%	@ 1.29
Sevilla or Draw	49%	55%	@ 1.71

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	70%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	52%	49%	@ 1.93
Under 2.5	48%	51%	@ 1.83
Over 3.5	30%	28%	@ 3.35
Under 1.5	24%	27%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	46%	46%	@ 2.02

📈 How the market moved

Sevilla 26%Draw 28%Atlético Madrid 46%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

Who is the favourite for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid.

What is the predicted score for Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Sevilla and 1.61 for Atlético Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sevilla and Atlético Madrid play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.