⚽ Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

New York Red Bulls face Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York Red Bulls have 1 win from their last 5, while Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

New York Red Bulls or Draw @ 1.70

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.77 – 1.97 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.4%	4.7%	4.6%	3.0%	1.5%
1	4.2%	8.3%	8.2%	5.4%	2.6%
2	3.7%	7.3%	7.2%	4.7%	2.3%
3	2.2%	4.3%	4.3%	2.8%	1.4%
4	1.0%	1.9%	1.9%	1.2%	0.6%

Projected score: 1-1

New York Red Bulls winDrawPhiladelphia Union win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is New York Red Bulls or Draw at odds 1.70, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a New York Red Bulls win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (71%).

Best value

New York Red Bulls or Draw at odds 1.70, 68% model probability, +14.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

New York Red Bulls 42%Draw 25%Philadelphia Union 33%

42%25%33%

42%

New York Red Bulls Win

72%

Over 2.5 goals

71%

BTTS yes

+14.9%

Best value: New York Red Bulls or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from New York Red Bulls’s perspective: 1 drawn · Philadelphia Union 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-22	Philadelphia Union	3 – 1	New York Red Bulls	L
2024-08-31	New York Red Bulls	0 – 2	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-07-06	Philadelphia Union	0 – 0	New York Red Bulls	D
2023-09-03	Philadelphia Union	4 – 1	New York Red Bulls	L
2023-05-06	New York Red Bulls	0 – 1	Philadelphia Union	L

📈 Recent form

New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Orlando City SC. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Nashville SC.

DNew York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
LNew York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
LAtlanta United FC 2-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 3-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
LNew York Red Bulls 0-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Necaxa. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Santos Laguna.

DPhiladelphia Union 2-2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
WNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
LPhiladelphia Union 0-2 Santos LagunaLeagues Cup
WPhiladelphia Union 3-1 NecaxaLeagues Cup
WPhiladelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York Red Bulls at 42% to win and Philadelphia Union at 33%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
New York Red Bulls Win	42%	@ 2.94	+24.0%
Draw	25%	@ 3.90	-4.3%
Philadelphia Union Win	33%	@ 2.12	-29.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York Red Bulls or Draw at 1.70 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
New York Red Bulls or Draw	68%	@ 1.70	+14.9%
Philadelphia Union or Draw	59%	@ 1.38	-19.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	51%	@ 2.10	+8.0%
Over 2.5	72%	@ 1.44	+3.9%
Over 1.5	89%	@ 1.13	+0.3%
Under 3.5	49%	@ 1.70	-17.4%
Under 2.5	28%	@ 2.70	-24.7%
Under 1.5	11%	@ 5.75	-35.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	71%	@ 1.38	-2.1%
BTTS No	29%	@ 2.80	-18.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

Our main pick is New York Red Bulls or Draw at odds 1.70, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

Our model makes a New York Red Bulls win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-2.0 scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union.

What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.77 for New York Red Bulls and 1.97 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.