⚽ Brazilian Série A
Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC.
Result: Vasco da Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro
Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro finished 3-1. Vasco da Gama won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Vasco da Gama face Cruzeiro in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC. Recent form: Vasco da Gama have no wins from their last 5, while Cruzeiro have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 1, Cruzeiro won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Cruzeiro with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Cruzeiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Vasco da Gama’s perspective: Vasco da Gama 1 · 3 drawn · Cruzeiro 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Vasco da Gama | 3 – 1 | Cruzeiro | W |
| 2024-09-29 | Cruzeiro | 1 – 1 | Vasco da Gama | D |
| 2024-06-16 | Vasco da Gama | 0 – 0 | Cruzeiro | D |
| 2023-11-22 | Cruzeiro | 2 – 2 | Vasco da Gama | D |
| 2023-07-08 | Vasco da Gama | 0 – 1 | Cruzeiro | L |
📈 Recent form
Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.
- WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
- WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.
- WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
- LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- BrennerKnee Injury
- JairMuscle Injury
- Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
- Robert RenanSuspended (cards)
- J. RojasNot in squad
- Bruno RodriguesNot in squad
- Fabricio BrunoSuspended (cards)
- Gabriel PecBroken Leg
- L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Vasco da Gama at 28% to win and Cruzeiro at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro Win | 40% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Vasco da Gama Win | 28% | 38% | @ 2.45 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Cruzeiro or Draw at 1.52 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro or Draw | 69% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Vasco da Gama or Draw | 57% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 52% | @ 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
| Under 1.5 | 30% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 27% | @ 3.45 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | 45% | @ 2.04 |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vasco da Gama or Cruzeiro is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro +1.75 | 90% | 85% | @ 1.12 |
| Cruzeiro +1.5 | 88% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| Cruzeiro +1.25 | 83% | 77% | @ 1.23 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.5 | 79% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Cruzeiro +1 | 78% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Cruzeiro +0.75 | 74% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.25 | 74% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Cruzeiro +0.5 | 69% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| Vasco da Gama +1 | 68% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Cruzeiro +0.25 | 63% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.75 | 62% | – | 1.25 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.5 | 57% | – | 1.38 |
| Cruzeiro 0 | 56% | 43% | @ 2.22 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.25 | 50% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Cruzeiro -0.25 | 50% | 35% | @ 2.68 |
| Vasco da Gama 0 | 44% | 57% | 1.66 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.25 | 37% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Cruzeiro -1 | 32% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.5 | 31% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Cruzeiro -1.25 | 26% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.75 | 26% | 34% | 2.77 |
| Vasco da Gama -1 | 22% | 25% | 3.73 |
| Cruzeiro -1.5 | 21% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Vasco da Gama -1.25 | 17% | 23% | 4.20 |
| Vasco da Gama -1.5 | 13% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Vasco da Gama -1.75 | 10% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?
Our model's main pick is Cruzeiro with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?
Our model makes a Cruzeiro win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro.
What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.95 for Vasco da Gama and 1.47 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro play?
Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:20 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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