⚽ Serie A

Lazio vs Genoa Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lazio vs Genoa in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lazio face Genoa in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lazio have 3 wins from their last 5, while Genoa have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lazio won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lazio vs Genoa with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.42

68%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.01 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.6%	9.7%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
1	12.8%	12.9%	6.5%	2.2%	0.6%
2	8.5%	8.6%	4.3%	1.5%	0.4%
3	3.8%	3.8%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lazio winDrawGenoa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lazio vs Genoa is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 68%. On the match result, the model rates a Lazio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (53%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.42, 68% model probability, -3.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lazio 49%Draw 29%Genoa 22%

49%29%22%

49%

Lazio Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

-3.7%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lazio and Genoa. Wins shown from Lazio’s perspective: Lazio 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-30	Lazio	3 – 2	Genoa	W
2025-09-29	Genoa	0 – 3	Lazio	W
2025-04-23	Genoa	0 – 2	Lazio	W
2024-10-27	Lazio	3 – 0	Genoa	W
2024-04-19	Genoa	0 – 1	Lazio	W

📈 Recent form

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Ostia Mare. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Mantova.

WBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A
LLazio 0-2 MantovaCoppa Italia
WFrosinone 1-2 LazioFriendlies Clubs
WLazio 4-0 Ostia MareFriendlies Clubs
WAscoli 1-2 LazioFriendlies Clubs

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 14. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Ascoli. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Napoli.

LGenoa 0-2 NapoliSerie A
WGenoa 4-1 AscoliCoppa Italia
LGenoa 0-1 Deportivo La CorunaFriendlies Clubs
LBournemouth 10-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
WLeicester 0-1 GenoaFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lazio at 49% to win and Genoa at 22%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lazio Win	49%	@ 1.90	-6.4%
Draw	29%	@ 3.25	-7.0%
Genoa Win	22%	@ 4.20	-7.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lazio or Draw at 1.22 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lazio or Draw	76%	@ 1.22	-7.4%
Genoa or Draw	49%	@ 1.85	-9.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	68%	@ 1.42	-3.7%
Under 3.5	79%	@ 1.20	-5.1%
Under 2.5	58%	@ 1.62	-5.2%
Over 2.5	42%	@ 2.25	-6.7%
Over 3.5	21%	@ 4.33	-9.6%
Under 1.5	32%	@ 2.80	-9.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	47%	@ 2.00	-6.4%
BTTS No	53%	@ 1.75	-6.9%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lazio vs Genoa?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 68% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Genoa?

Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Genoa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Lazio and 1.01 for Genoa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lazio and Genoa play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.