Sun 30 Aug1-0Finished

⚽ Serie A

Lazio vs Genoa Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lazio vs Genoa in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lazio 1-0 Genoa

Lazio vs Genoa finished 1-0. Lazio won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Lazio face Genoa in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lazio have 3 wins from their last 5, while Genoa have no wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lazio won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lazio vs Genoa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lazio +0.25 @ 1.33

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.34 – 0.98 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.8%	9.6%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.2%	12.9%	6.3%	2.1%	0.5%
2	8.8%	8.6%	4.2%	1.4%	0.3%
3	3.9%	3.9%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Lazio winDrawGenoa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lazio vs Genoa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lazio with a +0.25 start at odds 1.33, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lazio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Lazio 50%Draw 28%Genoa 22%

50%28%22%

50%

Lazio Win

59%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lazio and Genoa. Wins shown from Lazio’s perspective: Lazio 5.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-30	Lazio	1 – 0	Genoa	W
2026-01-30	Lazio	3 – 2	Genoa	W
2025-09-29	Genoa	0 – 3	Lazio	W
2025-04-23	Genoa	0 – 2	Lazio	W
2024-10-27	Lazio	3 – 0	Genoa	W

📈 Recent form

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
WUdinese 1-2 LazioSerie A
WLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A
WBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sudtirol. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Parma.

LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
LGenoa 1-4 ComoSerie A
LLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lazio

D. CataldiGroin Injury
F. Dele-BashiruMuscle Injury
A. FurlanettoKnee Injury
S. GigotNot in squad
A. MarusicMuscle Injury
PatricAnkle Injury
L. PellegriniInjury

Genoa

L. VenturinoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lazio at 50% to win and Genoa at 22%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio Win	50%	45%	@ 2.07
Draw	28%	32%	@ 2.95
Genoa Win	22%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lazio or Draw at 1.23 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio or Draw	76%	77%	@ 1.23
Genoa or Draw	48%	55%	@ 1.72

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	80%	@ 1.18
Over 1.5	67%	65%	@ 1.45
Under 2.5	59%	61%	@ 1.54
Over 2.5	41%	39%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	33%	35%	@ 2.75
Over 3.5	20%	20%	@ 4.70

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	54%	@ 1.74
BTTS Yes	46%	46%	@ 2.02

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lazio or Genoa is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio +0.75	80%	82%	1.17
Genoa +1.75	76%	83%	1.15
Lazio +0.5	76%	76%	1.25
Genoa +1.5	73%	77%	1.23
Lazio +0.25	70%	72%	1.33
Genoa +1.25	67%	75%	1.27
Lazio 0	64%	65%	1.46
Genoa +1	61%	71%	1.33
Lazio -0.25	58%	53%	@ 1.81
Genoa +0.75	54%	62%	1.54
Lazio -0.5	52%	45%	@ 2.09
Genoa +0.5	48%	55%	1.73
Lazio -0.75	46%	38%	@ 2.50
Genoa +0.25	42%	47%	2.07
Lazio -1	39%	29%	@ 3.35
Genoa 0	36%	35%	2.71
Lazio -1.25	33%	25%	@ 3.79
Genoa -0.25	30%	28%	@ 3.39
Lazio -1.5	27%	23%	@ 4.08
Genoa -0.5	24%	24%	3.91
Lazio -1.75	24%	17%	@ 5.50
Genoa -0.75	20%	18%	@ 5.42

📈 How the market moved

Lazio 45%Draw 31%Genoa 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lazio vs Genoa?

Our model's main pick is Lazio with a +0.25 start at odds 1.33, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Genoa?

Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Genoa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.34 for Lazio and 0.98 for Genoa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lazio and Genoa play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.