⚽ Brazilian Série A

Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Gremio face Chapecoense-sc in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Recent form: Gremio have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense-sc have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Gremio win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.8-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.75 – 1.00 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	6.4%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
1	11.2%	11.2%	5.6%	1.9%	0.5%
2	9.8%	9.8%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.7%	5.7%	2.9%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.5%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Gremio winDrawChapecoense-sc win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Gremio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

BTTS Yes at odds 1.85, 53% model probability, -2.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Gremio 50%Draw 31%Chapecoense-sc 19%

50%31%19%

50%

Gremio Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-2.3%

Best value: BTTS Yes

📈 Recent form

Gremio

Gremio come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sao Paulo. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at RB Bragantino.

LRB Bragantino 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
LAtletico-MG 3-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
WGremio 2-1 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A
WGremio 1-0 MirassolCopa Do Brasil
DMirassol 1-1 GremioCopa Do Brasil

Chapecoense-sc

Chapecoense-sc come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Sao Paulo. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Coritiba.

WChapecoense-sc 1-0 Sao PauloBrazilian Série A
DChapecoense-sc 3-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
LCruzeiro 2-0 Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
DChapecoense-sc 0-0 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Gremio

DodiKnee Injury
J. NardoniKnee Injury
E. NoriegaSuspended (cards)
Gustavo MartinsInjury
E. NoriegaInjury

Chapecoense-sc

Y. BolasieInjury
Bruno TubaraoNot in squad
Camilo ReijersSuspended (cards)
Joao PauloHealth problems
Max AlvesInjury
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Gremio at 50% to win and Chapecoense-sc at 19%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Gremio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	31%	@ 4.00	+24.4%
Chapecoense-sc Win	19%	@ 6.25	+21.4%
Gremio Win	50%	@ 1.52	-24.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chapecoense-sc or Draw at 2.45 (47% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Chapecoense-sc or Draw	47%	@ 2.45	+15.6%
Gremio or Draw	77%	@ 1.11	-14.4%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	76%	@ 1.28	-2.7%
Under 3.5	70%	@ 1.38	-3.0%
Over 2.5	52%	@ 1.83	-5.1%
Under 2.5	48%	@ 1.95	-6.1%
Over 3.5	30%	@ 3.00	-10.9%
Under 1.5	24%	@ 3.65	-12.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.85	-2.3%
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.85	-12.7%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 76% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?

Our model makes a Gremio win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.0 scoreline for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc.

What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.75 for Gremio and 1.00 for Chapecoense-sc. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Gremio and Chapecoense-sc play?

Kick-off is Sunday 30 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.