Mon 31 Aug1-0Finished

⚽ Serie A

Atalanta vs Bologna Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atalanta vs Bologna in the Serie A. Kick-off Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna

Atalanta vs Bologna finished 1-0. Atalanta won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Bologna Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at 1.32, landed.

Atalanta face Bologna in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5, while Bologna have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Atalanta won 3, Bologna won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atalanta vs Bologna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bologna Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.32

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	7.5%	4.1%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.8%	11.9%	6.5%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.6%	9.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.5%	5.0%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atalanta winDrawBologna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atalanta vs Bologna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bologna Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atalanta win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Atalanta 48%Draw 26%Bologna 26%

48%26%26%

48%

Atalanta Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atalanta and Bologna. Wins shown from Atalanta’s perspective: Atalanta 3 · 1 drawn · Bologna 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-31	Atalanta	1 – 0	Bologna	W
2026-05-17	Atalanta	0 – 1	Bologna	L
2026-01-07	Bologna	0 – 2	Atalanta	W
2025-04-13	Atalanta	2 – 0	Bologna	W
2024-09-28	Bologna	1 – 1	Atalanta	D

📈 Recent form

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Juventus.

LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
LAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference

Bologna

Bologna come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Napoli.

DBologna 1-1 TorinoSerie A
LNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
DBologna 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
LAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LBologna 0-1 LazioSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury
H. AhanorMuscle Injury
T. KristensenAnkle Injury
I. SulemanaKnee Injury

Bologna

N. CasaleMuscle Injury
O. El AzzouziThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atalanta at 48% to win and Bologna at 26%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta Win	48%	50%	@ 1.87
Draw	26%	27%	@ 3.40
Bologna Win	26%	23%	@ 4.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atalanta or Draw at 1.22 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta or Draw	73%	77%	@ 1.22
Bologna or Draw	52%	50%	@ 1.88

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	74%	@ 1.27
Under 3.5	72%	71%	@ 1.32
Over 2.5	50%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	50%	50%	@ 1.88
Over 3.5	28%	29%	@ 3.30
Under 1.5	25%	26%	@ 3.65

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	54%	@ 1.74
BTTS No	47%	46%	@ 2.02

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atalanta or Bologna is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bologna +2	83%	84%	1.12
Bologna +1.75	79%	77%	1.22
Atalanta +0.75	78%	83%	1.15
Bologna +1.5	75%	72%	1.32
Atalanta +0.5	73%	76%	1.24
Bologna +1.25	70%	69%	1.39
Atalanta +0.25	67%	73%	1.29
Bologna +1	64%	64%	1.50
Atalanta 0	61%	68%	1.39
Bologna +0.75	58%	56%	1.72
Atalanta -0.25	54%	59%	1.63
Bologna +0.5	52%	49%	@ 1.94
Atalanta -0.5	48%	51%	1.88
Bologna +0.25	46%	41%	@ 2.32
Atalanta -0.75	42%	44%	2.15
Bologna 0	39%	32%	@ 2.99
Atalanta -1	36%	36%	2.66
Bologna -0.25	33%	27%	@ 3.58
Atalanta -1.25	30%	31%	3.06
Bologna -0.5	27%	24%	@ 3.97
Atalanta -1.5	25%	28%	3.37
Bologna -0.75	22%	17%	@ 5.50
Atalanta -1.75	21%	23%	4.15
Atalanta -2	17%	16%	@ 6.00

📈 How the market moved

Atalanta 50%Draw 27%Bologna 23%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Our model's main pick is Bologna Asian Handicap with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Atalanta vs Bologna?

Our model makes an Atalanta win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna.

What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Bologna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for Atalanta and 1.10 for Bologna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atalanta and Bologna play?

Kick-off is Monday 31 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.