Wed 2 Sep0-1Finished

⚽ Premiership

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren in the Premiership. Kick-off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

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Result: Kilmarnock 0-1 St Mirren

Kilmarnock vs St Mirren finished 0-1. St Mirren won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Kilmarnock face St Mirren in the Premiership, kicking off Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Kilmarnock have 3 wins from their last 5, while St Mirren have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Kilmarnock won 1, St Mirren won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Kilmarnock +1 @ 1.26

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.32 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.8%	9.0%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
1	9.3%	12.3%	8.1%	3.6%	1.2%
2	6.4%	8.4%	5.5%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.8%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Kilmarnock winDrawSt Mirren win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Kilmarnock with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Kilmarnock win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Kilmarnock 38%Draw 26%St Mirren 36%

38%26%36%

38%

Kilmarnock Win

50%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Kilmarnock and St Mirren. Wins shown from Kilmarnock’s perspective: Kilmarnock 1 · St Mirren 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-02	Kilmarnock	0 – 1	St Mirren	L
2026-05-09	St Mirren	0 – 3	Kilmarnock	W

📈 Recent form

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Hibernian. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to St Mirren.

DKilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership
WHibernian 0-1 KilmarnockPremiership
DKilmarnock 1-1 AberdeenLeague Cup
DAberdeen 0-0 KilmarnockPremiership
LKilmarnock 0-1 St MirrenPremiership

St Mirren

St Mirren come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Kilmarnock. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Dundee Utd.

LSt Mirren 0-3 Dundee UtdPremiership
LRangers 1-0 St MirrenPremiership
LSt Mirren 1-2 CelticPremiership
WKilmarnock 0-1 St MirrenPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Kilmarnock at 38% to win and St Mirren at 36%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Kilmarnock Win	38%	35%	@ 2.65
St Mirren Win	36%	38%	@ 2.40
Draw	26%	27%	@ 3.40

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Kilmarnock or Draw at 1.53 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Kilmarnock or Draw	64%	62%	@ 1.53
St Mirren or Draw	62%	65%	@ 1.45

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	76%	@ 1.23
Under 3.5	72%	68%	@ 1.38
Over 2.5	50%	53%	@ 1.76
Under 2.5	50%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	28%	32%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	25%	24%	@ 3.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	58%	@ 1.58
BTTS No	46%	42%	@ 2.18

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Kilmarnock or St Mirren is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Kilmarnock +1.75	87%	84%	1.12
St Mirren +1.75	86%	86%	1.10
Kilmarnock +1.5	84%	79%	@ 1.19
St Mirren +1.5	83%	83%	1.15
Kilmarnock +1.25	79%	77%	1.23
St Mirren +1.25	78%	81%	1.17
Kilmarnock +1	74%	75%	1.26
St Mirren +1	72%	–	1.19
Kilmarnock +0.75	69%	67%	1.43
St Mirren +0.75	67%	72%	1.31
Kilmarnock +0.5	64%	60%	@ 1.56
St Mirren +0.5	62%	65%	1.45
Kilmarnock +0.25	58%	54%	@ 1.76
St Mirren +0.25	56%	61%	1.57
Kilmarnock 0	51%	46%	@ 2.06
St Mirren 0	49%	54%	1.78
Kilmarnock -0.25	44%	39%	@ 2.44
St Mirren -0.25	42%	46%	2.10
Kilmarnock -0.5	38%	35%	@ 2.69
St Mirren -0.5	36%	40%	2.37
Kilmarnock -0.75	33%	28%	@ 3.45
St Mirren -0.75	31%	33%	2.88
St Mirren -1	26%	25%	3.81
Kilmarnock -1.25	22%	19%	@ 5.00
St Mirren -1.25	21%	23%	4.21
Kilmarnock -1.5	17%	17%	5.50
St Mirren -1.5	16%	21%	4.50
Kilmarnock -1.75	14%	14%	6.80
St Mirren -1.75	13%	16%	6.00

📈 How the market moved

Kilmarnock 34%Draw 27%St Mirren 39%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?

Our model's main pick is Kilmarnock with a +1 start at odds 1.26, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?

Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren.

What is the predicted score for Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Kilmarnock and 1.32 for St Mirren. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Kilmarnock and St Mirren play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 02 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.