⚽ Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Result: VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln finished 4-1. VfB Stuttgart won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln in the upcoming Bundesliga tips, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: VfB Stuttgart have 1 win from their last 5, while 1. FC Köln have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 2.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is 1. FC Köln with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln. Wins shown from VfB Stuttgart’s perspective: VfB Stuttgart 4 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 – 1 | 1. FC Köln | W |
| 2026-02-14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 – 1 | 1. FC Köln | W |
| 2025-09-28 | 1. FC Köln | 1 – 2 | VfB Stuttgart | W |
| 2024-02-24 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 – 1 | 1. FC Köln | D |
| 2023-09-30 | 1. FC Köln | 0 – 2 | VfB Stuttgart | W |
📈 Recent form
VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to 1. FC Köln. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund.
- LVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- LHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- WVfB Stuttgart 3-1 VikingUEFA Champions League
- WVfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- LBayern Munich 5-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
1. FC Köln come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Hoffenheim. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Hamburger SV.
- LHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- D1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- LVfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- W1. FC Köln 3-2 HoffenheimBundesliga
- WWürzburger Kickers 1-2 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. ArevaloBack Injury
- J. DiehlMuscle Injury
- L. JaquezMuscle Injury
- N. NarteyInjury
- D. SeimenThigh Injury
- T. TomasMuscle Injury
- D. ZagadouMuscle Injury
- T. DallingaIllness
- S. El MalaIllness
- T. HubersKnee Injury
- S. SebulonsenMuscle Injury
- L. WaldschmidtMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices VfB Stuttgart at 63% to win and 1. FC Köln at 15%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 63% | 64% | @ 1.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | @ 4.60 |
| 1. FC Köln Win | 15% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.12 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart or Draw | 84% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| 1. FC Köln or Draw | 37% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 86% | @ 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 48% | @ 1.96 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 52% | @ 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 38% | @ 2.45 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when VfB Stuttgart or 1. FC Köln is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 84% | 83% | 1.15 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 79% | 80% | 1.18 |
| VfB Stuttgart 0 | 74% | 78% | 1.23 |
| 1. FC Köln +2 | 71% | 71% | 1.35 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.25 | 69% | 70% | 1.35 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.75 | 66% | 64% | 1.50 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.5 | 63% | 64% | 1.48 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.5 | 61% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.75 | 57% | 60% | 1.60 |
| 1. FC Köln +1.25 | 55% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1 | 51% | 54% | 1.77 |
| 1. FC Köln +1 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.07 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.25 | 45% | 47% | 2.04 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.75 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.37 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.5 | 39% | 43% | 2.18 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.5 | 37% | 36% | 2.58 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.75 | 34% | 36% | 2.65 |
| 1. FC Köln +0.25 | 31% | 30% | @ 3.23 |
| VfB Stuttgart -2 | 29% | 29% | 3.23 |
| 1. FC Köln 0 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.34 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.25 | 21% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.5 | 16% | 17% | 5.50 |
| 1. FC Köln -0.75 | 13% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model's main pick is 1. FC Köln with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.2 scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln.
What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.48 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.20 for 1. FC Köln. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln play?
Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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