⚽ Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln in the Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: VfB Stuttgart have 1 win from their last 5, while 1. FC Köln have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 2.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.38

71%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.48 – 1.20 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.5%	3.0%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
1	6.3%	7.5%	4.5%	1.8%	0.5%
2	7.8%	9.3%	5.6%	2.2%	0.7%
3	6.4%	7.7%	4.6%	1.8%	0.6%
4	4.0%	4.8%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

VfB Stuttgart winDraw1. FC Köln win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Over 3.5 at odds 1.96, 50% model probability, -1.7% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

VfB Stuttgart 63%Draw 21%1. FC Köln 15%

63%21%15%

63%

VfB Stuttgart Win

71%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

-1.7%

Best value: Over 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln. Wins shown from VfB Stuttgart’s perspective: VfB Stuttgart 3 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-14	VfB Stuttgart	3 – 1	1. FC Köln	W
2025-09-28	1. FC Köln	1 – 2	VfB Stuttgart	W
2024-02-24	VfB Stuttgart	1 – 1	1. FC Köln	D
2023-09-30	1. FC Köln	0 – 2	VfB Stuttgart	W

📈 Recent form

VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Hansa Rostock. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at Bayern München.

LBayern München 5-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
WHansa Rostock 0-4 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
LFulham 1-0 VfB StuttgartFriendlies Clubs
WVfB Stuttgart 3-1 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
DVfB Stuttgart 2-2 Paris FCFriendlies Clubs

1. FC Köln

1. FC Köln come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at Bergisch Gladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

W1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
WWürzburger Kickers 1-2 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal
W1. FC Köln 2-1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs
D1. FC Köln 2-2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs
WBergisch Gladbach 0-8 1. FC KölnFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

VfB Stuttgart

J. ArevaloBack Injury
J. DiehlMuscle Injury
N. NarteyInjury
D. SeimenThigh Injury
T. TomasMuscle Injury
D. ZagadouMuscle Injury

1. FC Köln

T. HubersKnee Injury
T. DallingaIllness
S. El MalaIllness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices VfB Stuttgart at 63% to win and 1. FC Köln at 15%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	21%	@ 4.60	-2.3%
1. FC Köln Win	15%	@ 6.00	-7.4%
VfB Stuttgart Win	63%	@ 1.46	-7.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is 1. FC Köln or Draw at 2.63 (37% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
1. FC Köln or Draw	37%	@ 2.63	-3.5%
VfB Stuttgart or Draw	84%	@ 1.12	-5.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	50%	@ 1.96	-1.7%
Over 2.5	71%	@ 1.38	-1.9%
Over 1.5	88%	@ 1.09	-3.9%
Under 3.5	50%	@ 1.81	-9.8%
Under 2.5	29%	@ 2.95	-14.7%
Under 1.5	12%	@ 6.75	-20.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.50	-5.2%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.45	-9.9%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	68%
Dixon-Coles	Home	63%
GradientBoosting	Home	62%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.97 for the home side, 0.85 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.38, with 71% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?

Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 2.5-1.2 scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln.

What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.48 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.20 for 1. FC Köln. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln play?

Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.