⚽ Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Bayer Leverkusen face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins from their last 5, while Union Berlin have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 3, Union Berlin won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 2.2-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.72

60%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.22 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	4.0%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
1	9.0%	8.9%	4.4%	1.4%	0.4%
2	9.9%	9.8%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	7.4%	7.3%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
4	4.1%	4.0%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-0

Bayer Leverkusen winDrawUnion Berlin win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.72, the selection our model is most confident in at 60%. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (56%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.72, 60% model probability, +3.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Bayer Leverkusen 63%Draw 23%Union Berlin 13%

63%23%13%

63%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS yes

+3.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin. Wins shown from Bayer Leverkusen’s perspective: Bayer Leverkusen 3 · 1 drawn · Union Berlin 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-21	Union Berlin	1 – 0	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2025-10-04	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 0	Union Berlin	W
2025-04-12	Bayer Leverkusen	0 – 0	Union Berlin	D
2024-11-30	Union Berlin	1 – 2	Bayer Leverkusen	W
2024-04-06	Union Berlin	0 – 1	Bayer Leverkusen	W

📈 Recent form

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at SV Wehen. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.

LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WSV Wehen 0-4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
WNewcastle 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
LNottingham Forest 2-1 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
WBayer Leverkusen 2-1 SevillaFriendlies Clubs

Union Berlin

Union Berlin come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Eintracht Braunschweig. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at home to Ipswich.

DUnion Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
WEintracht Braunschweig 2-4 Union BerlinDFB Pokal
LUnion Berlin 2-4 IpswichFriendlies Clubs
WUnion Berlin 3-2 ArisFriendlies Clubs
DUnion Berlin 2-2 CagliariFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Bayer Leverkusen

M. CulbreathInjury
G. DoueInjury
K. EichhornIllness
N. TellaInjury
E. Ben SeghirThigh Injury
M. TerrierMuscle Injury

Union Berlin

O. BurkeAchilles Tendon Injury
M. FriedrichNot in squad
A. IlicIllness
A. MarkgrafKnee Injury
S. NsokiMuscle Injury
F. RonnowMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Bayer Leverkusen at 63% to win and Union Berlin at 13%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	23%	@ 4.80	+11.5%
Bayer Leverkusen Win	63%	@ 1.41	-10.6%
Union Berlin Win	13%	@ 6.50	-13.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Union Berlin or Draw at 2.80 (35% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Union Berlin or Draw	35%	@ 2.80	-0.9%
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	85%	@ 1.10	-6.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	38%	@ 2.80	+5.8%
Under 1.5	17%	@ 6.10	+3.7%
Under 3.5	60%	@ 1.72	+3.3%
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.11	-7.9%
Over 2.5	62%	@ 1.42	-11.7%
Over 3.5	40%	@ 2.07	-17.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	44%	@ 2.25	-1.2%
BTTS Yes	56%	@ 1.58	-11.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	68%
Dixon-Coles	Home	62%
GradientBoosting	Home	62%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 2.01 for the home side, 0.84 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.72, with 60% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.0 scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin.

What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.22 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.99 for Union Berlin. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.