⚽ Premiership

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock in the Premiership. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Aberdeen face Kilmarnock in the Premiership, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Aberdeen have 1 win from their last 5, while Kilmarnock have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.6-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Kilmarnock or Draw @ 1.97

64%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.64 – 1.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	5.9%	5.2%	3.0%	1.3%
1	5.5%	9.7%	8.5%	4.9%	2.2%
2	4.5%	7.9%	6.9%	4.0%	1.8%
3	2.5%	4.3%	3.8%	2.2%	1.0%
4	1.0%	1.8%	1.6%	0.9%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Aberdeen winDrawKilmarnock win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Kilmarnock or Draw at odds 1.97, the selection our model is most confident in at 64%. On the match result, the model rates a Kilmarnock win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Kilmarnock or Draw at odds 1.97, 64% model probability, +26.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Aberdeen 38%Draw 22%Kilmarnock 40%

38%22%40%

40%

Kilmarnock Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

+26.6%

Best value: Kilmarnock or Draw

📈 Recent form

Aberdeen

Aberdeen come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Celtic.

LCeltic 3-0 AberdeenPremiership
LAberdeen 0-1 RangersPremiership
WAberdeen 3-0 DundeeLeague Cup
LDundee 2-0 AberdeenPremiership
WAberdeen 2-1 Heart Of MidlothianPremiership

Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 16. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Ayr Utd. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to ST Mirren.

LKilmarnock 0-1 ST MirrenPremiership
LKilmarnock 0-4 Dundee UtdPremiership
WKilmarnock 3-2 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
LKilmarnock 1-5 CelticPremiership
LST Johnstone 4-3 KilmarnockPremiership

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Aberdeen at 38% to win and Kilmarnock at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Kilmarnock Win	40%	@ 3.95	+57.3%
Draw	22%	@ 3.65	-17.9%
Aberdeen Win	38%	@ 1.77	-33.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Kilmarnock or Draw at 1.97 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Kilmarnock or Draw	64%	@ 1.97	+26.6%
Aberdeen or Draw	62%	@ 1.22	-24.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	44%	@ 2.60	+14.3%
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.65	+8.6%
Over 1.5	85%	@ 1.19	+1.4%
Under 3.5	56%	@ 1.46	-18.2%
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.18	-25.5%
Under 1.5	15%	@ 4.40	-34.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.57	-0.7%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.20	-19.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
Dixon-Coles	Away	54%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.32 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Our main pick is Kilmarnock or Draw at odds 1.97, with 64% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

Our model makes a Kilmarnock win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock.

What is the predicted score for Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.64 for Aberdeen and 1.75 for Kilmarnock. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Aberdeen and Kilmarnock play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.