⚽ Serie A
Inter vs Napoli Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Inter vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Result: Inter 3-2 Napoli
Inter vs Napoli finished 3-2. Inter won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Inter face Napoli in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Inter have 3 wins from their last 5, while Napoli have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Inter won 1, Napoli won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Inter win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Inter vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Inter vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Inter win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Inter and Napoli. Wins shown from Inter’s perspective: Inter 1 · 3 drawn · Napoli 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Inter | 3 – 2 | Napoli | W |
| 2026-01-11 | Inter | 2 – 2 | Napoli | D |
| 2025-10-25 | Napoli | 3 – 1 | Inter | L |
| 2025-03-01 | Napoli | 1 – 1 | Inter | D |
| 2024-11-10 | Inter | 1 – 1 | Napoli | D |
📈 Recent form
Inter come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 5-3 at home to Udinese. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Real Madrid.
- DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
- WInter 5-3 UdineseSerie A
- LReal Madrid 2-1 InterUEFA Champions League
- WInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
- WCagliari 0-1 InterSerie A
Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.
- DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
- WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
- LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
- LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
- LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. SpenceInjury
- M. SpinacceNot in squad
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- GiovaneGroin Injury
- L. MarianucciKnee Injury
- S. McTominayHeart Problems
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Inter at 48% to win and Napoli at 19%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes an Inter win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Win | 48% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| Draw | 33% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
| Napoli Win | 19% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Inter or Draw at 1.14 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter or Draw | 77% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Napoli or Draw | 48% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 | 67% | 76% | @ 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 24% | @ 3.85 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Inter or Napoli is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter +0.75 | 80% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Napoli +2 | 80% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Inter +0.5 | 77% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Napoli +1.75 | 76% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Napoli +1.5 | 72% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Inter +0.25 | 71% | 80% | 1.19 |
| Napoli +1.25 | 66% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Inter 0 | 64% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Napoli +1 | 60% | 56% | @ 1.71 |
| Inter -0.25 | 58% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Napoli +0.75 | 54% | 48% | @ 2.03 |
| Inter -0.5 | 52% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Napoli +0.5 | 48% | 42% | @ 2.29 |
| Inter -0.75 | 46% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Napoli +0.25 | 42% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Inter -1 | 40% | 44% | 2.15 |
| Napoli 0 | 36% | 23% | @ 4.14 |
| Inter -1.25 | 34% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Napoli -0.25 | 29% | 20% | @ 4.81 |
| Inter -1.5 | 28% | 33% | 2.85 |
| Inter -1.75 | 24% | 27% | 3.57 |
| Napoli -0.5 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Inter -2 | 20% | 20% | 4.65 |
| Napoli -0.75 | 20% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Inter vs Napoli?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.
Who is the favourite for Inter vs Napoli?
Our model makes an Inter win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for Inter vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for Inter vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.70 for Inter and 1.20 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Inter and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 16:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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