Sat 5 Sep2-1Finished

⚽ Serie A

AS Roma vs Atalanta Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Atalanta in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta

AS Roma vs Atalanta finished 2-1. AS Roma won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

AS Roma face Atalanta in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: AS Roma have 5 wins from their last 5, while Atalanta have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 1, Atalanta won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Atalanta with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Atalanta +1.75 @ 1.27

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.48 – 1.15 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2%	8.3%	4.8%	1.8%	0.5%
1	10.7%	12.3%	7.1%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.1%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.9%	4.5%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

AS Roma winDrawAtalanta win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Atalanta with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 50%Draw 27%Atalanta 23%

50%27%23%

50%

AS Roma Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AS Roma and Atalanta. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: AS Roma 1 · 1 drawn · Atalanta 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-05	AS Roma	2 – 1	Atalanta	W
2026-04-18	AS Roma	1 – 1	Atalanta	D
2026-01-03	Atalanta	1 – 0	AS Roma	L
2025-05-12	Atalanta	2 – 1	AS Roma	L
2024-12-02	AS Roma	0 – 2	Atalanta	L

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Lecce. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
WTorino 0-2 AS RomaSerie A
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
WAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A

Atalanta

Atalanta come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Juventus.

LJuventus 2-0 AtalantaSerie A
LAtalanta 1-2 CagliariSerie A
LAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
WAtalanta 1-0 BolognaSerie A
WHapoel Tel Aviv 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Europa Conference

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahKnee Injury
L. PellegriniThigh Injury

Atalanta

I. HienMuscle Injury
K. SulemanaKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 50% to win and Atalanta at 23%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma Win	50%	54%	@ 1.72
Draw	27%	27%	@ 3.50
Atalanta Win	23%	19%	@ 4.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.17 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma or Draw	76%	81%	@ 1.17
Atalanta or Draw	49%	46%	@ 2.07

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	73%	72%	@ 1.32
Under 2.5	51%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	49%	49%	@ 1.94
Over 3.5	27%	28%	@ 3.35
Under 1.5	26%	27%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	51%	@ 1.85
BTTS No	47%	49%	@ 1.89

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when AS Roma or Atalanta is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atalanta +2	81%	81%	1.17
AS Roma +0.75	80%	85%	1.12
Atalanta +1.75	77%	–	1.27
AS Roma +0.5	76%	79%	1.21
Atalanta +1.5	73%	68%	@ 1.40
AS Roma +0.25	70%	77%	1.24
Atalanta +1.25	67%	64%	@ 1.50
AS Roma 0	63%	74%	1.29
Atalanta +1	61%	59%	1.63
AS Roma -0.25	57%	64%	1.50
Atalanta +0.75	55%	50%	@ 1.93
AS Roma -0.5	51%	56%	1.72
Atalanta +0.5	49%	44%	@ 2.15
AS Roma -0.75	45%	50%	1.95
Atalanta +0.25	43%	36%	@ 2.63
AS Roma -1	39%	41%	2.31
Atalanta 0	37%	26%	@ 3.62
AS Roma -1.25	33%	36%	2.64
Atalanta -0.25	30%	23%	@ 4.18
AS Roma -1.5	27%	32%	3.00
Atalanta -0.5	24%	21%	@ 4.49
Atalanta -0.75	20%	15%	@ 6.25
AS Roma -2	19%	19%	5.00

📈 How the market moved

AS Roma 55%Draw 25%Atalanta 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

Our model's main pick is Atalanta with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 78%.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for AS Roma and 1.15 for Atalanta. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Atalanta play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.