Sat 5 Sep2-0Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Philadelphia Union 2-0 CF Montreal

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal finished 2-0. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.39, was void (stake returned).

Philadelphia Union face CF Montreal in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Philadelphia Union have 3 wins from their last 5, while CF Montreal have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 3, CF Montreal won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 2.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

CF Montreal Asian Handicap +2.0 @ 1.39

84%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.04 – 1.34 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	4.6%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
1	6.9%	9.3%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.1%	9.5%	6.4%	2.8%	1.0%
3	4.8%	6.5%	4.3%	1.9%	0.6%
4	2.5%	3.3%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Philadelphia Union winDrawCF Montreal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Philadelphia Union 46%Draw 26%CF Montreal 28%

46%26%28%

46%

Philadelphia Union Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 3 · 1 drawn · CF Montreal 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-05	Philadelphia Union	2 – 0	CF Montreal	W
2026-04-11	CF Montreal	1 – 2	Philadelphia Union	W
2024-06-29	CF Montreal	4 – 2	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-06-01	Philadelphia Union	2 – 2	CF Montreal	D
2023-06-03	Philadelphia Union	3 – 0	CF Montreal	W

📈 Recent form

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

CF Montreal

CF Montreal come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Vancouver Whitecaps. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Columbus Crew.

LCF Montreal 0-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
WCF Montreal 2-1 Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship
LColorado Rapids 1-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
LCF Montreal 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
LPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Philadelphia Union

A. BedoyaKnee Injury

CF Montreal

F. AmayaLower-Body Injury
E. MoralesToe Injury
B. HidalgoGroin Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 46% to win and CF Montreal at 28%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Philadelphia Union Win	46%	63%	@ 1.47
CF Montreal Win	28%	16%	@ 5.80
Draw	26%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.12 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Philadelphia Union or Draw	72%	84%	@ 1.12
CF Montreal or Draw	54%	37%	@ 2.55

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	66%	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	56%	56%	@ 1.68
Over 3.5	44%	44%	@ 2.12
Under 2.5	34%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	15%	16%	@ 5.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	59%	@ 1.56
BTTS No	38%	41%	@ 2.28

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or CF Montreal is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
CF Montreal +2	84%	69%	@ 1.39
CF Montreal +1.75	81%	61%	@ 1.56
CF Montreal +1.5	77%	55%	@ 1.73
Philadelphia Union +0.75	76%	86%	1.11
Philadelphia Union +0.5	72%	84%	1.12
CF Montreal +1.25	71%	50%	@ 1.94
CF Montreal +1	66%	42%	@ 2.26
Philadelphia Union +0.25	65%	83%	1.15
CF Montreal +0.75	60%	37%	@ 2.54
Philadelphia Union 0	59%	–	1.19
CF Montreal +0.5	54%	33%	@ 2.87
Philadelphia Union -0.25	52%	74%	1.29
CF Montreal +0.25	48%	26%	@ 3.61
Philadelphia Union -0.5	46%	67%	1.42
Philadelphia Union -0.75	40%	63%	1.51
CF Montreal -0.25	35%	17%	@ 5.50
Philadelphia Union -1	34%	58%	1.66
Philadelphia Union -1.25	29%	50%	1.91
CF Montreal -0.5	28%	16%	@ 6.00
CF Montreal -0.75	24%	14%	@ 6.60
Philadelphia Union -1.5	23%	45%	2.12
Philadelphia Union -1.75	19%	39%	2.44
Philadelphia Union -2	16%	31%	3.04

📈 How the market moved

Philadelphia Union 67%Draw 19%CF Montreal 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

Our model's main pick is CF Montreal Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.39, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 72%.

Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.3 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal.

What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.04 for Philadelphia Union and 1.34 for CF Montreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.