vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Toronto FC face Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Chicago Fire have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Chicago Fire won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.5-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Chicago Fire or Draw at odds 1.41, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Chicago Fire win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: 2 drawn · Chicago Fire 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-09-29 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 1 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2024-06-15 | Toronto FC | 1 – 4 | Chicago Fire | L |
| 2023-07-16 | Chicago Fire | 1 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2023-05-31 | Toronto FC | 0 – 0 | Chicago Fire | D |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Inter Miami. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WInter Miami 1-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Chicago Fire come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Orlando City SC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Monterrey.
- DSeattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LMonterrey 2-1 Chicago FireLeagues Cup
- DNew York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- WOrlando City SC 1-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. DorschFace Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- M. MbokaziLower-Body Injury
- C. MuellerNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 34% to win and Chicago Fire at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC Win | 34% | @ 2.80 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 26% | @ 3.65 | -6.2% |
| Chicago Fire Win | 41% | @ 2.28 | -7.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toronto FC or Draw at 1.60 (60% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC or Draw | 60% | @ 1.60 | -4.4% |
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 67% | @ 1.41 | -6.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 63% | @ 1.54 | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | @ 1.16 | -3.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | @ 2.35 | -4.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 59% | @ 1.56 | -7.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | @ 2.40 | -11.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | @ 5.00 | -17.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | @ 1.45 | -7.4% |
| BTTS No | 36% | @ 2.55 | -7.9% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 40% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 49% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 39% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.23 for the home side, 1.37 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our main pick is Chicago Fire or Draw at odds 1.41, with 67% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.7 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.53 for Toronto FC and 1.72 for Chicago Fire. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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