vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC.
Result: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco finished 1-2. Monaco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.49, landed.
Paris Saint Germain face Monaco in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC. Recent form: Paris Saint Germain have 2 wins from their last 5, while Monaco have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 1, Monaco won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 2.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.49, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (68%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Monaco with a +0.75 start at odds 2.84 (+55.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco. Wins shown from Paris Saint Germain’s perspective: Paris Saint Germain 1 · 1 drawn · Monaco 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 – 2 | Monaco | L |
| 2026-03-06 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 – 3 | Monaco | L |
| 2026-02-25 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 – 2 | Monaco | D |
| 2026-02-17 | Monaco | 2 – 3 | Paris Saint Germain | W |
| 2025-11-29 | Monaco | 1 – 0 | Paris Saint Germain | L |
📈 Recent form
Paris Saint Germain come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Aston Villa. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Monaco.
- LParis Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- DParis Saint Germain 2-2 RennesLigue 1
- LLens 1-0 Paris Saint GermainTrophée des Champions
- WParis Saint Germain 2-1 Aston VillaUEFA Super Cup
Monaco come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WParis Saint Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- WMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- WMonaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference
- WLe Havre 0-1 MonacoLigue 1
- WGornik Zabrze 2-3 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. MendesSuspended (red card)
- F. BalogunInjury
- E. DiopInjury
- A. FatiCalf Injury
- M. SalisuKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Paris Saint Germain at 53% to win and Monaco at 26%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco Win | 26% | @ 6.75 | +72.1% |
| Draw | 22% | @ 5.10 | +11.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain Win | 53% | @ 1.37 | -27.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 2.95 (49% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco or Draw | 49% | @ 2.95 | +43.9% |
| Paris Saint Germain or Draw | 76% | @ 1.09 | -17.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 51% | @ 2.04 | +4.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | @ 1.40 | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | @ 1.11 | -1.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | @ 1.77 | -13.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | @ 2.88 | -18.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | @ 6.25 | -28.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | @ 1.60 | +8.1% |
| BTTS No | 32% | @ 2.23 | -27.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Paris Saint Germain or Monaco is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco 0 | 36% | @ 5.90 | +114.9% |
| Monaco -0.25 | 30% | @ 6.40 | +93.6% |
| Monaco -0.5 | 24% | @ 7.00 | +68.5% |
| Monaco +0.25 | 43% | @ 3.88 | +65.1% |
| Monaco +0.75 | 55% | @ 2.84 | +55.6% |
| Monaco +1 | 61% | @ 2.45 | +49.0% |
| Monaco +1.25 | 67% | @ 2.11 | +41.0% |
| Monaco +1.5 | 73% | @ 1.82 | +32.8% |
| Monaco +1.75 | 77% | @ 1.69 | +29.3% |
| Monaco +2 | 81% | @ 1.49 | +20.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain +0.5 | 76% | 1.10 | -16.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain +0.25 | 70% | 1.12 | -21.9% |
| Paris Saint Germain 0 | 64% | 1.13 | -28.2% |
| Paris Saint Germain -0.25 | 57% | 1.25 | -28.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain -0.5 | 51% | 1.36 | -30.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain -0.75 | 45% | 1.43 | -35.4% |
| Paris Saint Germain -1 | 39% | 1.54 | -39.6% |
| Paris Saint Germain -1.25 | 33% | 1.75 | -41.9% |
| Paris Saint Germain -1.5 | 27% | 1.97 | -46.5% |
| Paris Saint Germain -2 | 19% | 2.67 | -48.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain -1.75 | 23% | 2.21 | -48.5% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our main pick is Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.49, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Monaco with a +0.75 start at 2.84 (+55.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Our model makes a Paris Saint Germain win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.4 scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.36 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.36 for Monaco. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Paris Saint Germain and Monaco play?
Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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