⚽ Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC.
Result: Paris Saint-Germain 1-2 Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco finished 1-2. Monaco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.49, landed.
Paris Saint-Germain face Monaco in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC. Recent form: Paris Saint-Germain have 2 wins from their last 5, while Monaco have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Paris Saint-Germain won 1, Monaco won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 2.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.49, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points yes (68%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco. Wins shown from Paris Saint-Germain’s perspective: Paris Saint-Germain 1 · 1 drawn · Monaco 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 – 2 | Monaco | L |
| 2026-03-06 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 – 3 | Monaco | L |
| 2026-02-25 | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 – 2 | Monaco | D |
| 2026-02-17 | Monaco | 2 – 3 | Paris Saint-Germain | W |
| 2025-11-29 | Monaco | 1 – 0 | Paris Saint-Germain | L |
📈 Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to Slovan Bratislava. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Monaco.
- WMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WBrest 0-1 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 6-1 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
- LParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- DLille 2-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
Monaco come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
- DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
- WParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
- WMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
- WMonaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. MendesSuspended (red card)
- F. BalogunInjury
- E. DiopInjury
- A. FatiCalf Injury
- M. SalisuKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Paris Saint-Germain at 53% to win and Monaco at 26%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain Win | 53% | 68% | @ 1.37 |
| Monaco Win | 26% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | @ 5.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paris Saint-Germain or Draw at 1.09 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain or Draw | 76% | 86% | @ 1.09 |
| Monaco or Draw | 49% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 72% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% | 46% | @ 2.04 |
| Under 3.5 | 49% | 54% | @ 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 58% | @ 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 32% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Paris Saint-Germain or Monaco is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco +2 | 81% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Monaco +1.75 | 77% | 57% | @ 1.69 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.5 | 76% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Monaco +1.5 | 73% | 52% | @ 1.82 |
| Paris Saint-Germain +0.25 | 70% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Monaco +1.25 | 67% | 45% | @ 2.11 |
| Paris Saint-Germain 0 | 64% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Monaco +1 | 61% | 39% | @ 2.45 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.25 | 57% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Monaco +0.75 | 55% | 33% | @ 2.84 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.5 | 51% | – | 1.36 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -0.75 | 45% | 67% | 1.43 |
| Monaco +0.25 | 43% | 24% | @ 3.88 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1 | 39% | 61% | 1.54 |
| Monaco 0 | 36% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.25 | 33% | 55% | 1.75 |
| Monaco -0.25 | 30% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.5 | 27% | 48% | 1.97 |
| Monaco -0.5 | 24% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -1.75 | 23% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Paris Saint-Germain -2 | 19% | 36% | 2.67 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco?
Our model's main pick is Monaco Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.49, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco?
Our model makes a Paris Saint-Germain win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.4 scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.36 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.36 for Monaco. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco play?
Kick-off is Friday 04 September 2026, 19:05 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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