⚽ Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC. Recent form: Heerenveen have 1 win from their last 4, while AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.73

63%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.44 – 1.65 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.6%	7.5%	6.2%	3.4%	1.4%
1	6.6%	10.8%	8.9%	4.9%	2.0%
2	4.7%	7.8%	6.4%	3.5%	1.5%
3	2.3%	3.7%	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%
4	0.8%	1.3%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Heerenveen winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.73, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Heerenveen or Draw at odds 2.06 (+19.8% model value).

Best value

Heerenveen or Draw at odds 2.06, 58% model probability, +19.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Heerenveen 34%Draw 23%AZ Alkmaar 44%

34%23%44%

44%

AZ Alkmaar Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

+19.8%

Best value: Heerenveen or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Heerenveen’s perspective: Heerenveen 2 · AZ Alkmaar 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	AZ Alkmaar	3 – 0	Heerenveen	L
2025-11-23	Heerenveen	3 – 1	AZ Alkmaar	W
2025-05-22	AZ Alkmaar	4 – 1	Heerenveen	L
2025-03-02	Heerenveen	3 – 1	AZ Alkmaar	W
2024-09-14	AZ Alkmaar	9 – 1	Heerenveen	L

📈 Recent form

Heerenveen

Heerenveen come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Twente. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to PEC Zwolle.

DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
LHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
WHeerenveen 1-0 TwenteEredivisie
WHeerenveen 3-2 Volos NFCFriendlies Clubs

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at PSV Eindhoven. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WUtrecht 1-4 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 2-0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
WPSV Eindhoven 0-4 AZ AlkmaarSuper Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Heerenveen

M. EgbringInjury
M. HilgersKnee Injury
M. LindayNot in squad

AZ Alkmaar

D. KasiusGroin Injury
S. ResinkKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Heerenveen at 34% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heerenveen Win	34%	@ 4.00	+35.1%
Draw	23%	@ 4.10	-7.5%
AZ Alkmaar Win	44%	@ 1.73	-24.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heerenveen or Draw at 2.06 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Heerenveen or Draw	58%	@ 2.06	+19.8%
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	68%	@ 1.23	-16.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	19%	@ 6.25	+16.3%
Under 2.5	40%	@ 2.80	+12.9%
Under 3.5	63%	@ 1.73	+8.5%
Over 1.5	81%	@ 1.11	-9.7%
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.41	-15.9%
Over 3.5	37%	@ 2.06	-23.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	38%	@ 2.65	+0.2%
BTTS Yes	62%	@ 1.42	-11.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	40%
Dixon-Coles	Away	44%
GradientBoosting	Away	45%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.20 for the home side, 1.41 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.73, with 63% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Heerenveen or Draw at 2.06 (+19.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar.

What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.44 for Heerenveen and 1.65 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.