⚽ Eredivisie
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Result: Heerenveen 2-3 AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar finished 2-3. AZ Alkmaar won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Heerenveen face AZ Alkmaar in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC. Recent form: Heerenveen have 1 win from their last 4, while AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.4-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Heerenveen with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Heerenveen’s perspective: Heerenveen 2 · AZ Alkmaar 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Heerenveen | 2 – 3 | AZ Alkmaar | L |
| 2026-04-12 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 – 0 | Heerenveen | L |
| 2025-11-23 | Heerenveen | 3 – 1 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
| 2025-05-22 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 – 1 | Heerenveen | L |
| 2025-03-02 | Heerenveen | 3 – 1 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
📈 Recent form
Heerenveen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to AZ Alkmaar.
- WSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
- DHeerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- LHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.
- WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. EgbringInjury
- M. HilgersKnee Injury
- M. LindayNot in squad
- D. KasiusGroin Injury
- S. ResinkKnee Injury
- K. SmitGroin Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Heerenveen at 33% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 44% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Heerenveen Win | 33% | 23% | @ 4.00 |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AZ Alkmaar or Draw at 1.23 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 68% | 77% | @ 1.23 |
| Heerenveen or Draw | 58% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 67% | @ 1.41 |
| Under 3.5 | 61% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 18% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 65% | @ 1.42 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Heerenveen or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar +1.5 | 87% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Heerenveen +2 | 86% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Heerenveen +1.75 | 83% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.25 | 82% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Heerenveen +1.5 | 80% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Heerenveen +1.25 | 74% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.75 | 73% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Heerenveen +1 | 69% | 59% | @ 1.64 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.5 | 68% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Heerenveen +0.75 | 63% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.25 | 62% | 73% | 1.29 |
| Heerenveen +0.5 | 58% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| AZ Alkmaar 0 | 56% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Heerenveen +0.25 | 51% | 39% | @ 2.42 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 49% | 61% | 1.57 |
| Heerenveen 0 | 44% | 31% | @ 3.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 42% | 54% | 1.78 |
| Heerenveen -0.25 | 38% | 27% | @ 3.56 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 37% | 48% | 1.99 |
| Heerenveen -0.5 | 32% | 25% | @ 3.83 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1 | 31% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Heerenveen -0.75 | 27% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.25 | 26% | 37% | 2.60 |
| Heerenveen -1 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | 20% | 33% | 2.87 |
| Heerenveen -1.25 | 18% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.75 | 17% | 27% | 3.55 |
| AZ Alkmaar -2 | 14% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Heerenveen -1.5 | 13% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model's main pick is Heerenveen with a +1.75 start at odds 1.30, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model makes an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.45 for Heerenveen and 1.72 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Heerenveen and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 12:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Benevento
Catanzaro
Ascoli
Sampdoria
Cesena
Empoli
Virtus Entella
Avellino
Vicenza Virtus
Modena
Mantova
CremoneseAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.